NYJJets
1-0
10
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
71°F
2 mph
27
PITSteelers
0-1
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
71°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
3
0
0
10
Steelers
3
10
7
7
27
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
219
331
Total Plays
51
62
Yards / Play
4.3
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.24
Passing Yards
129
265
Comp/Att
10/27(37%)
24/31(77%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.48
Rushing Yards
90
66
Rush Attempts
22
28
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
33%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+4.94
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-9
-10
Sack EPA
-3.08
-3.47
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
63
107
Penalty EPA
-8.79
-8.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+92
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,562
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.2
Home QB Adjustment
-6.0
Away QB Adjustment
+3.2
Market Regression
-13.4
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
5
Yards / Game
30
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
5
Rushing Yards / Game
12
2
EPA
EPA / Play
30
7
EPA / Pass
30
7
EPA / Rush
15
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
13
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
28
16
Turnover EPA / Game
3
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
4
4th Down Efficiency
17
29
RZ Efficiency
25
11
Steelers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
20
Yards / Game
21
6
Passing Yards / Game
10
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
26
EPA
EPA / Play
18
11
EPA / Pass
14
11
EPA / Rush
29
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
6
Interceptions / Game
12
23
Fumbles / Game
28
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
12
4th Down Efficiency
20
31
RZ Efficiency
12
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U