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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ steelers week 2, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
1-0
10
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
71°F
2 mph
27
PITSteelers
0-1
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
71°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
3
0
0
10
Steelers
3
10
7
7
27

Spread

PIT logo
-4.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
219
331
Total Plays
51
62
Yards / Play
4.3
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.24
Passing Yards
129
265
Comp/Att
10/27(37%)
24/31(77%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.48
Rushing Yards
90
66
Rush Attempts
22
28
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
33%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+4.94
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-9
-10
Sack EPA
-3.08
-3.47
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
63
107
Penalty EPA
-8.79
-8.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+93
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,561
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.2
Home QB Adjustment
-6.0
Away QB Adjustment
+3.2
Market Regression
-14.2
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
Value
Ptile
11/06
0.3
54
11/13
-4.9
19
11/17
-4.4
22
11/27
1.3
62
12/04
0.1
53
12/11
4.5
79
12/18
-6.3
13
12/24
-6.7
11
01/01
-3.4
29
09/09
5.5
84
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
Value
Ptile
10/30
2.3
68
11/06
3.5
74
11/13
-4.0
25
11/27
-0.5
49
12/04
1.4
62
12/08
4.6
79
12/19
-5.1
18
01/01
-1.5
39
01/08
-3.7
28
09/09
-4.4
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Steelers Defense
Jets logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
5
Yards / Game
30
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
5
Rushing Yards / Game
12
2

EPA

EPA / Play
30
7
EPA / Pass
30
7
EPA / Rush
15
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
13
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
28
16
Turnover EPA / Game
3
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
4
4th Down Efficiency
17
29
RZ Efficiency
25
11
Steelers Offense vs Jets Defense
Steelers logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
22
20
Yards / Game
21
6
Passing Yards / Game
10
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
26

EPA

EPA / Play
18
11
EPA / Pass
14
11
EPA / Rush
29
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
6
Interceptions / Game
12
23
Fumbles / Game
28
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
12
4th Down Efficiency
20
31
RZ Efficiency
12
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
16
W
W
U
11/13
-21
L
L
O
11/17
-4
L
L
U
11/27
4
W
L
O
12/04
15
W
W
O
12/11
27
W
W
O
12/18
-26
L
L
O
12/24
-15
L
L
U
01/01
-2
L
L
U
09/09
20
W
W
O
PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
-3
L
L
O
11/13
7
W
W
O
11/27
4
W
L
U
12/04
28
W
W
U
12/08
11
W
L
U
12/19
-17
L
L
U
12/24
27
W
W
U
01/01
4
W
L
U
01/08
-6
L
L
O
09/09
-12
L
L
O