NYJJets
5-4
17
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
024
HOUTexans
4-5
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
7
7
17
Texans
0
10
14
0
24
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
267
364
Total Plays
63
73
Yards / Play
4.2
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.07
Passing Yards
197
241
Comp/Att
19/39(49%)
17/35(49%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.08
Rushing Yards
70
123
Rush Attempts
21
37
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
21%
39%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
18
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.81
-4.73
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-19
-9
Sack EPA
-5.62
-4.73
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
54
54
Penalty EPA
-5.57
-4.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-42
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+50.7
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.1
Net QB Adjustment
-53.3
Home QB Adjustment
-42.1
Away QB Adjustment
+11.2
Market Regression
-40.8
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
T. Yates
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-42.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
10
Yards / Game
10
3
Passing Yards / Game
15
4
Rushing Yards / Game
10
11
EPA
EPA / Play
17
3
EPA / Pass
9
4
EPA / Rush
15
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
17
Interceptions / Game
22
14
Fumbles / Game
15
22
Turnover EPA / Game
24
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
1
4th Down Efficiency
25
24
RZ Efficiency
3
19
Texans Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
7
Yards / Game
20
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
9
Rushing Yards / Game
16
2
EPA
EPA / Play
28
4
EPA / Pass
26
9
EPA / Rush
22
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
31
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
20
12
Turnover EPA / Game
17
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
3
4th Down Efficiency
32
21
RZ Efficiency
14
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U