DETLions
13-2
40
TBD
Levi's Stadium
70°F
034
SF49ers
6-9
TBD
Levi's Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
6
7
18
9
40
49ers
7
14
7
6
34
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
441
475
Total Plays
70
60
Yards / Play
6.3
7.9
EPA / Play
+0.40
+0.28
Passing Yards
289
400
Comp/Att
26/35(74%)
30/40(75%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
10.0
EPA / Pass
+0.63
+0.39
Rushing Yards
152
75
Rush Attempts
33
18
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
29
Passing 1st downs
16
19
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
64%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
8
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-11.29
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-12
Sack EPA
-3.95
-2.32
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
57
30
Penalty EPA
-3.91
-4.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-101
Home nfelo
1,542
Away nfelo
1,689
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
+21.0
Net QB Adjustment
-27.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.5
Away QB Adjustment
+30.3
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+30.3
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
29
Yards / Game
2
7
Passing Yards / Game
10
2
Rushing Yards / Game
3
18
EPA
EPA / Play
3
30
EPA / Pass
2
14
EPA / Rush
6
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
21
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
2
19
Turnover EPA / Game
15
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
25
4th Down Efficiency
4
26
RZ Efficiency
3
31
49ers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
11
Yards / Game
4
26
Passing Yards / Game
2
16
Rushing Yards / Game
11
6
EPA
EPA / Play
11
7
EPA / Pass
9
6
EPA / Rush
13
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
24
Interceptions / Game
26
7
Fumbles / Game
22
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
1
4th Down Efficiency
23
4
RZ Efficiency
14
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U