DETLions
2-3
7
TBD
Soldier Field
63°F
8 mph
13
CHIBears
4-1
TBD
Soldier Field
63°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
0
0
7
7
Bears
10
0
3
0
13
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
340
296
Total Plays
67
69
Yards / Play
5.1
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.08
Passing Yards
243
125
Comp/Att
28/46(61%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
3.9
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.22
Rushing Yards
97
171
Rush Attempts
18
32
Yards / Rush
5.4
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.44
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
16
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
31%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-13.22
+5.36
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-20
-25
Sack EPA
-4.40
-6.21
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
47
49
Penalty EPA
-7.39
-5.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+187
Home nfelo
1,592
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+85.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-5.4
Home QB Adjustment
+3.1
Away QB Adjustment
+8.4
Market Regression
+14.1
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
2
Yards / Game
3
5
Passing Yards / Game
4
24
Rushing Yards / Game
23
7
EPA
EPA / Play
21
1
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
21
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
8
Interceptions / Game
22
1
Fumbles / Game
26
1
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
5
4th Down Efficiency
24
26
RZ Efficiency
7
12
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
27
Yards / Game
28
12
Passing Yards / Game
26
9
Rushing Yards / Game
10
16
EPA
EPA / Play
24
21
EPA / Pass
26
20
EPA / Rush
18
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
24
Interceptions / Game
18
23
Fumbles / Game
13
22
Turnover EPA / Game
22
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
32
RZ Efficiency
22
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
5-5
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U