DETLions
12-2
34
TBD
Soldier Field
29°F
7 mph
17
CHIBears
4-10
TBD
Soldier Field
29°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
13
14
7
0
34
Bears
0
14
3
0
17
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
475
382
Total Plays
65
59
Yards / Play
7.3
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.35
-0.00
Passing Yards
329
323
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
26/40(65%)
Yards / Pass
10.3
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.48
+0.28
Rushing Yards
146
59
Rush Attempts
32
17
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.60
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
19
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
58%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
40%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-9.27
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-11
Sack EPA
-1.80
-3.35
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
55
70
Penalty EPA
-5.26
-8.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-192
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,680
Home Field
+28.5
Base HFA
+39.6
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
-7.1
Net QB Adjustment
-31.2
Home QB Adjustment
-7.1
Away QB Adjustment
+24.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.1
C. Williams
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
14
Yards / Game
2
27
Passing Yards / Game
10
29
Rushing Yards / Game
3
27
EPA
EPA / Play
3
17
EPA / Pass
2
10
EPA / Rush
6
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
1
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
2
3
Turnover EPA / Game
15
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
12
4th Down Efficiency
4
5
RZ Efficiency
3
3
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
11
Yards / Game
32
26
Passing Yards / Game
20
16
Rushing Yards / Game
24
6
EPA
EPA / Play
27
7
EPA / Pass
26
6
EPA / Rush
20
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
6
7
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
24
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
12
4
RZ Efficiency
9
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U