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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ bears week 16, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DET logo
DETLions
12-2
34
TBD
Soldier Field
29°F
7 mph
17
CHIBears
4-10
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
29°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
13
14
7
0
34
Bears
0
14
3
0
17

Spread

DET logo
-7

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
475
382
Total Plays
65
59
Yards / Play
7.3
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.35
-0.00
Passing Yards
329
323
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
26/40(65%)
Yards / Pass
10.3
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.48
+0.28
Rushing Yards
146
59
Rush Attempts
32
17
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.60
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
27
19
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
58%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
40%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-9.27
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-11
Sack EPA
-1.80
-3.35
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
55
70
Penalty EPA
-5.26
-8.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-192
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,680
Home Field
+28.5
Base HFA
+39.6
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
-7.1
Net QB Adjustment
-31.2
Home QB Adjustment
-7.1
Away QB Adjustment
+24.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+24.1
Value
Ptile
10/13
6.3
85
10/20
2.8
69
10/27
-2.9
28
11/03
0.5
52
11/10
-7.6
6
11/17
13.0
99
11/24
-1.6
37
11/28
1.9
62
12/05
6.0
85
12/15
13.6
99
C. Williams headshot

C. Williams

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.1
Value
Ptile
10/06
6.7
88
10/13
5.5
81
10/27
-6.6
10
11/03
-9.5
3
11/10
-12.5
0
11/17
3.1
70
11/24
6.4
87
11/28
0.4
51
12/08
-3.2
26
12/16
-2.5
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Lions logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
1
14
Yards / Game
2
27
Passing Yards / Game
10
29
Rushing Yards / Game
3
27

EPA

EPA / Play
3
17
EPA / Pass
2
10
EPA / Rush
6
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
1
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
2
3
Turnover EPA / Game
15
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
12
4th Down Efficiency
4
5
RZ Efficiency
3
3
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Bears logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
28
11
Yards / Game
32
26
Passing Yards / Game
20
16
Rushing Yards / Game
24
6

EPA

EPA / Play
27
7
EPA / Pass
26
6
EPA / Rush
20
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
6
7
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
24
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
12
4
RZ Efficiency
9
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
38
W
W
O
10/20
2
W
W
O
10/27
38
W
W
O
11/03
10
W
W
U
11/10
3
W
L
U
11/17
46
W
W
O
11/24
18
W
W
U
11/28
3
W
L
U
12/05
3
W
P
O
12/15
-6
L
L
O
CHI logo

Bears

2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
26
W
W
O
10/13
19
W
W
O
10/27
-3
L
L
U
11/03
-20
L
L
U
11/10
-16
L
L
U
11/17
-1
L
W
U
11/24
-3
L
P
O
11/28
-3
L
W
U
12/08
-25
L
L
O
12/16
-18
L
L
U