DETLions
3-10
17
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
67°F
3 mph
27
DENBroncos
5-9
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
67°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
1
7
0
11
Broncos
0
10
3
14
27
Spread
-8
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
191
348
Total Plays
49
67
Yards / Play
3.9
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.07
Passing Yards
95
--
Comp/Att
12/24(50%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.22
Rushing Yards
96
150
Rush Attempts
21
33
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
25
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
36%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-22
--
Sack EPA
-4.39
--
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
68
50
Penalty EPA
-6.89
-4.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model76.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+234
Home nfelo
1,475
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+79.6
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+16.7
Net QB Adjustment
+118.0
Home QB Adjustment
-8.2
Away QB Adjustment
-126.2
Market Regression
+3.8
Final Difference
205.0
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
D. Blough
Proj. Value
-5.0
Team Elo Adj
-126.2
Value
Ptile
P. Lock
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
8
Yards / Game
16
12
Passing Yards / Game
12
6
Rushing Yards / Game
21
16
EPA
EPA / Play
21
15
EPA / Pass
16
14
EPA / Rush
27
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
17
Interceptions / Game
21
25
Fumbles / Game
10
28
Turnover EPA / Game
14
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
11
4th Down Efficiency
24
15
RZ Efficiency
12
1
Broncos Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
26
Yards / Game
28
31
Passing Yards / Game
31
27
Rushing Yards / Game
20
21
EPA
EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
25
26
EPA / Rush
18
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
13
Interceptions / Game
12
30
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
26
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
28
4th Down Efficiency
1
14
RZ Efficiency
27
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U