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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ broncos week 16, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
3-10
17
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
67°F
3 mph
27
DENBroncos
5-9
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
67°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
1
7
0
11
Broncos
0
10
3
14
27

Spread

DEN logo
-8

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
191
348
Total Plays
49
67
Yards / Play
3.9
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.07
Passing Yards
95
--
Comp/Att
12/24(50%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.22
Rushing Yards
96
150
Rush Attempts
21
33
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
13
25
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
36%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-22
--
Sack EPA
-4.39
--
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
68
50
Penalty EPA
-6.89
-4.74

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model76.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+239
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+79.6
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+16.7
Net QB Adjustment
+118.0
Home QB Adjustment
-8.2
Away QB Adjustment
-126.2
Market Regression
+2.4
Final Difference
206.0
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

D. Blough headshot

D. Blough

Proj. Value
-5.0
Team Elo Adj
-126.2
Value
Ptile
11/28
0.2
54
12/08
-8.1
9
12/15
-6.8
13
P. Lock headshot

P. Lock

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Value
Ptile
12/01
-0.4
49
12/08
5.3
84
12/15
-7.4
10

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Broncos Defense
Lions logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
18
8
Yards / Game
16
12
Passing Yards / Game
12
6
Rushing Yards / Game
21
16

EPA

EPA / Play
21
15
EPA / Pass
16
14
EPA / Rush
27
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
17
Interceptions / Game
21
25
Fumbles / Game
10
28
Turnover EPA / Game
14
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
11
4th Down Efficiency
24
15
RZ Efficiency
12
1
Broncos Offense vs Lions Defense
Broncos logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
28
26
Yards / Game
28
31
Passing Yards / Game
31
27
Rushing Yards / Game
20
21

EPA

EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
25
26
EPA / Rush
18
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
13
Interceptions / Game
12
30
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
26
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
28
4th Down Efficiency
1
14
RZ Efficiency
27
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
-1
L
W
U
10/20
-12
L
L
O
10/27
5
W
L
O
11/03
-7
L
L
O
11/10
-7
L
L
U
11/17
-8
L
L
O
11/24
-3
L
L
U
11/28
-4
L
W
O
12/08
-13
L
L
U
12/15
-21
L
L
O
DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
7
W
W
U
10/13
16
W
W
U
10/17
-24
L
L
U
10/27
-2
L
W
U
11/03
5
W
W
O
11/17
-4
L
W
O
11/24
-17
L
L
U
12/01
3
W
W
O
12/08
14
W
W
O
12/15
-20
L
L
U