DETLions
4-1
20
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
13 mph
6
TBBuccaneers
3-1
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
77°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
7
7
3
20
Buccaneers
0
3
3
0
6
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
380
251
Total Plays
69
54
Yards / Play
5.5
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.26
Passing Yards
340
205
Comp/Att
30/44(68%)
19/37(51%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.41
-0.22
Rushing Yards
40
46
Rush Attempts
22
16
Yards / Rush
1.8
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.36
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
13
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
--
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
56%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.19
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-13
-1
Sack EPA
-3.33
-0.93
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
35
33
Penalty EPA
-5.17
-5.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-79
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,588
Home Field
+70.7
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-24.5
Home QB Adjustment
-15.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-15.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
5
Yards / Game
2
20
Passing Yards / Game
3
31
Rushing Yards / Game
6
4
EPA
EPA / Play
8
15
EPA / Pass
5
22
EPA / Rush
11
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
13
Interceptions / Game
8
18
Fumbles / Game
19
4
Turnover EPA / Game
14
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
22
4th Down Efficiency
13
7
RZ Efficiency
2
3
Buccaneers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
25
Yards / Game
20
23
Passing Yards / Game
8
18
Rushing Yards / Game
31
2
EPA
EPA / Play
13
23
EPA / Pass
8
28
EPA / Rush
30
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
27
Interceptions / Game
9
9
Fumbles / Game
13
29
Turnover EPA / Game
28
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
13
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
27
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U