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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ buccaneers week 14, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
6-6
24
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
55°F
9 mph
21
TBBuccaneers
4-8
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
55°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
7
7
3
24
Buccaneers
7
0
0
14
21

Spread

DET logo
+0

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
434
400
Total Plays
62
69
Yards / Play
7.0
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.05
Passing Yards
--
267
Comp/Att
36/44(82%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.26
-0.10
Rushing Yards
53
133
Rush Attempts
18
28
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
21
28
Passing 1st downs
16
19
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
45%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
8
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
3
5
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-7.90
-22.62
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-6.32
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
105
65
Penalty EPA
-10.68
-2.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
N/A
Model
+0.5

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model49.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+28
Home nfelo
1,444
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+75.8
Base HFA
+56.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.6
Home QB Adjustment
-10.1
Away QB Adjustment
+2.5
Market Regression
+5.3
Final Difference
5.6
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Value
Ptile
09/24
0.1
53
10/01
-7.5
10
10/08
-2.5
35
10/15
-7.9
8
10/29
5.1
84
11/06
7.5
92
11/12
-0.5
48
11/19
3.1
75
11/23
-1.6
41
12/03
2.7
72
J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.1
Value
Ptile
01/01
-3.9
20
09/17
-1.8
40
09/24
-0.1
50
10/01
6.3
89
10/05
0.9
58
10/15
-5.3
18
10/22
9.0
96
10/29
-7.3
11
11/05
-6.4
14
12/03
-2.9
33

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Lions logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
8
22
Yards / Game
13
32
Passing Yards / Game
4
3
Rushing Yards / Game
32
23

EPA

EPA / Play
20
28
EPA / Pass
12
29
EPA / Rush
32
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
13
Interceptions / Game
10
15
Fumbles / Game
28
9
Turnover EPA / Game
9
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
32
4th Down Efficiency
31
1
RZ Efficiency
14
18
Buccaneers Offense vs Lions Defense
Buccaneers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
18
21
Yards / Game
7
27
Passing Yards / Game
1
16
Rushing Yards / Game
27
19

EPA

EPA / Play
13
4
EPA / Pass
11
11
EPA / Rush
25
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
7
Interceptions / Game
20
3
Fumbles / Game
32
4
Turnover EPA / Game
8
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
15
4th Down Efficiency
13
21
RZ Efficiency
23
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
-4
L
L
O
10/01
7
W
W
U
10/08
-3
L
L
O
10/15
-14
L
L
O
10/29
-5
L
L
U
11/06
13
W
W
O
11/12
14
W
W
O
11/19
3
W
P
O
11/23
-7
L
L
O
12/03
-24
L
L
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
2
W
L
O
10/05
-5
L
L
U
10/15
-5
L
L
O
10/22
-3
L
P
O
10/29
-14
L
L
U
11/05
-20
L
L
U
11/12
5
W
W
U
11/19
10
W
W
O
11/26
-14
L
L
O
12/03
-6
L
L
O