DETLions
6-6
24
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
55°F
9 mph
21
TBBuccaneers
4-8
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
55°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
7
7
3
24
Buccaneers
7
0
0
14
21
Spread
+0
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
434
400
Total Plays
62
69
Yards / Play
7.0
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.05
Passing Yards
--
267
Comp/Att
36/44(82%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.26
-0.10
Rushing Yards
53
133
Rush Attempts
18
28
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
28
Passing 1st downs
16
19
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
45%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
8
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
5
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-7.90
-22.62
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-6.32
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
105
65
Penalty EPA
-10.68
-2.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
N/A
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model49.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,479
Home Field
+74.8
Base HFA
+55.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.6
Home QB Adjustment
-10.1
Away QB Adjustment
+2.5
Market Regression
+4.7
Final Difference
6.0
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-10.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
22
Yards / Game
13
32
Passing Yards / Game
4
3
Rushing Yards / Game
32
23
EPA
EPA / Play
20
28
EPA / Pass
12
29
EPA / Rush
32
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
13
Interceptions / Game
10
15
Fumbles / Game
28
9
Turnover EPA / Game
9
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
32
4th Down Efficiency
31
1
RZ Efficiency
14
18
Buccaneers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
21
Yards / Game
7
27
Passing Yards / Game
1
16
Rushing Yards / Game
27
19
EPA
EPA / Play
13
4
EPA / Pass
11
11
EPA / Rush
25
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
7
Interceptions / Game
20
3
Fumbles / Game
32
4
Turnover EPA / Game
8
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
15
4th Down Efficiency
13
21
RZ Efficiency
23
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U