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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ dolphins week 7, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DET logo
DETLions
2-3
32
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
8 mph
21
MIADolphins
4-2
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
10
9
6
32
Dolphins
0
7
7
7
21

Spread

DET logo
-3

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
457
322
Total Plays
59
54
Yards / Play
7.7
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.42
+0.14
Passing Yards
209
215
Comp/Att
18/22(82%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.64
+0.20
Rushing Yards
248
107
Rush Attempts
36
19
Yards / Rush
6.9
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
12
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
25%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-8
-24
Sack EPA
-1.30
-4.65
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
43
50
Penalty EPA
-6.56
-5.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-104
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+33.3
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.3
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-59.1
Home QB Adjustment
-53.4
Away QB Adjustment
+5.7
Market Regression
-82.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
Value
Ptile
12/03
2.7
72
12/10
6.2
88
12/16
1.6
64
12/24
-4.0
25
12/31
5.1
85
09/10
-4.8
19
09/16
6.8
89
09/23
3.8
73
09/30
4.7
78
10/07
-2.7
29
B. Osweiler headshot

B. Osweiler

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-53.4
Value
Ptile
12/04
1.1
57
12/11
-7.3
7
12/18
-9.3
3
01/07
1.6
60
01/14
-7.0
8
11/05
-7.9
8
11/12
-2.5
35
11/19
-2.0
39
12/24
-5.4
18
10/14
6.6
87

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Lions logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
25
27
Yards / Game
24
29
Passing Yards / Game
20
13
Rushing Yards / Game
23
31

EPA

EPA / Play
23
23
EPA / Pass
22
25
EPA / Rush
25
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
4
Interceptions / Game
14
2
Fumbles / Game
18
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
28
4th Down Efficiency
9
3
RZ Efficiency
25
20
Dolphins Offense vs Lions Defense
Dolphins logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
26
16
Yards / Game
31
9
Passing Yards / Game
29
25
Rushing Yards / Game
19
11

EPA

EPA / Play
28
15
EPA / Pass
29
24
EPA / Rush
27
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
14
Interceptions / Game
17
29
Fumbles / Game
29
28
Turnover EPA / Game
11
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
8
11
RZ Efficiency
27
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
-24
L
L
O
12/10
3
W
W
U
12/16
10
W
W
U
12/24
-9
L
L
U
12/31
24
W
W
O
09/10
-31
L
L
O
09/16
-3
L
W
O
09/23
16
W
W
U
09/30
-2
L
W
O
10/07
8
W
W
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
7
W
W
U
12/17
-8
L
L
O
12/24
-16
L
L
U
12/31
-6
L
L
U
09/09
7
W
W
O
09/16
8
W
W
U
09/23
8
W
W
O
09/30
-31
L
L
U
10/07
-10
L
L
U
10/14
3
W
W
O