DETLions
2-3
32
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
8 mph
21
MIADolphins
4-2
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
10
9
6
32
Dolphins
0
7
7
7
21
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
457
322
Total Plays
59
54
Yards / Play
7.7
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.42
+0.14
Passing Yards
209
215
Comp/Att
18/22(82%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.64
+0.20
Rushing Yards
248
107
Rush Attempts
36
19
Yards / Rush
6.9
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
12
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
25%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-8
-24
Sack EPA
-1.30
-4.65
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
43
50
Penalty EPA
-6.56
-5.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-106
Home nfelo
1,436
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+32.9
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.8
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-59.1
Home QB Adjustment
-53.4
Away QB Adjustment
+5.7
Market Regression
-81.7
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-53.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
27
Yards / Game
24
29
Passing Yards / Game
20
13
Rushing Yards / Game
23
31
EPA
EPA / Play
23
23
EPA / Pass
22
25
EPA / Rush
25
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
4
Interceptions / Game
14
2
Fumbles / Game
18
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
28
4th Down Efficiency
9
3
RZ Efficiency
25
20
Dolphins Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
16
Yards / Game
31
9
Passing Yards / Game
29
25
Rushing Yards / Game
19
11
EPA
EPA / Play
28
15
EPA / Pass
29
24
EPA / Rush
27
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
14
Interceptions / Game
17
29
Fumbles / Game
29
28
Turnover EPA / Game
11
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
8
11
RZ Efficiency
27
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U