DETLions
1-3
26
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
66°F
15 mph
23
PHIEagles
3-2
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
66°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Lions
6
0
0
17
3
26
Eagles
0
7
6
10
0
23
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
449
357
Total Plays
73
78
Yards / Play
6.2
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.01
Passing Yards
--
286
Comp/Att
22/45(49%)
28/46(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.14
Rushing Yards
138
71
Rush Attempts
28
29
Yards / Rush
4.9
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.48
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
24
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
23%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.96
-9.72
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-25
Sack EPA
--
-4.34
Penalties
16
9
Penalty Yards
132
60
Penalty EPA
-13.45
-6.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model65.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,574
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+35.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.9
Home QB Adjustment
-0.2
Away QB Adjustment
+8.8
Market Regression
-23.7
Final Difference
107.2
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
29
Yards / Game
3
14
Passing Yards / Game
4
3
Rushing Yards / Game
23
21
EPA
EPA / Play
21
29
EPA / Pass
16
31
EPA / Rush
21
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
5
Interceptions / Game
22
30
Fumbles / Game
26
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
27
4th Down Efficiency
24
1
RZ Efficiency
7
19
Eagles Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
27
Yards / Game
17
12
Passing Yards / Game
6
9
Rushing Yards / Game
13
16
EPA
EPA / Play
27
21
EPA / Pass
24
20
EPA / Rush
27
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
24
Interceptions / Game
14
23
Fumbles / Game
32
22
Turnover EPA / Game
1
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
8
4th Down Efficiency
10
32
RZ Efficiency
29
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-6
SU
1-8-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Eagles
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U