DETLions
2-3
23
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
022
ATLFalcons
1-5
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
3
3
10
23
Falcons
0
14
0
8
22
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
386
390
Total Plays
59
71
Yards / Play
6.5
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.04
Passing Yards
322
324
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
31/43(72%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.25
Rushing Yards
64
66
Rush Attempts
21
26
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
26
Passing 1st downs
15
19
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
30%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.33
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-16
Sack EPA
-3.91
-7.26
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
50
53
Penalty EPA
+0.27
-6.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+52
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,452
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.0
Home QB Adjustment
+6.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.8
Market Regression
-50.1
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
20
29
Passing Yards / Game
9
30
Rushing Yards / Game
30
7
EPA
EPA / Play
20
19
EPA / Pass
18
26
EPA / Rush
29
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
11
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
12
13
Turnover EPA / Game
7
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
16
4th Down Efficiency
24
7
RZ Efficiency
10
27
Falcons Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
32
Yards / Game
15
32
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
28
28
EPA
EPA / Play
14
32
EPA / Pass
11
32
EPA / Rush
27
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
12
27
Turnover EPA / Game
26
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
28
4th Down Efficiency
15
22
RZ Efficiency
26
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U