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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ falcons week 7, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
2-3
23
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
22
ATLFalcons
1-5
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
3
3
10
23
Falcons
0
14
0
8
22

Spread

DET logo
+1

Total

UNDER
54

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
386
390
Total Plays
59
71
Yards / Play
6.5
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.04
Passing Yards
322
324
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
31/43(72%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.25
Rushing Yards
64
66
Rush Attempts
21
26
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
21
26
Passing 1st downs
15
19
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
30%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.33
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-16
Sack EPA
-3.91
-7.26
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
50
53
Penalty EPA
+0.27
-6.68

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+50
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.0
Home QB Adjustment
+6.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.8
Market Regression
-50.1
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Value
Ptile
09/29
3.0
72
10/14
-2.8
33
10/20
7.5
92
10/27
2.7
70
11/03
3.4
74
09/13
1.0
51
09/20
-2.2
28
09/27
-0.5
42
10/04
-1.4
34
10/18
-1.6
33
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
Value
Ptile
12/08
4.5
81
12/15
2.6
69
12/22
2.5
69
12/29
-4.2
24
09/13
6.3
86
09/20
7.3
90
09/27
-4.1
19
10/05
-0.0
46
10/11
-5.9
11
10/18
10.4
96

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Falcons Defense
Lions logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
20
29
Passing Yards / Game
9
30
Rushing Yards / Game
30
7

EPA

EPA / Play
20
19
EPA / Pass
18
26
EPA / Rush
29
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
11
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
12
13
Turnover EPA / Game
7
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
16
4th Down Efficiency
24
7
RZ Efficiency
10
27
Falcons Offense vs Lions Defense
Falcons logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
16
32
Yards / Game
15
32
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
28
28

EPA

EPA / Play
14
32
EPA / Pass
11
32
EPA / Rush
27
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
12
27
Turnover EPA / Game
26
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
28
4th Down Efficiency
15
22
RZ Efficiency
26
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
-4
L
W
O
12/08
-13
L
L
U
12/15
-21
L
L
O
12/22
-10
L
L
O
12/29
-3
L
W
U
09/13
-4
L
L
O
09/20
-21
L
L
O
09/27
3
W
W
U
10/04
-6
L
L
O
10/18
18
W
W
U
ATL logo

Falcons

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
20
W
W
O
12/15
7
W
W
O
12/22
12
W
W
U
12/29
6
W
W
O
09/13
-13
L
L
O
09/20
-1
L
W
O
09/27
-4
L
L
O
10/05
-14
L
L
U
10/11
-7
L
L
U
10/18
17
W
W
O