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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ giants week 11, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
3-6
31
TBD
MetLife Stadium
35°F
21 mph
18
NYGGiants
7-2
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
35°F
21 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
14
7
7
31
Giants
6
0
0
12
18

Spread

DET logo
+3

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
325
413
Total Plays
63
73
Yards / Play
5.2
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.10
Passing Yards
--
324
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
27/45(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.05
Rushing Yards
160
89
Rush Attempts
37
26
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
23
25
Passing 1st downs
9
17
Rushing 1st downs
12
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-14.83
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-2.56
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
45
63
Penalty EPA
-5.64
-6.50

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,395
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+39.8
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.4
Home QB Adjustment
+12.5
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Value
Ptile
01/09
3.4
78
09/11
-1.4
43
09/18
1.9
67
09/25
0.9
58
10/02
7.8
92
10/09
-4.8
19
10/23
-4.8
19
10/30
4.7
84
11/06
-1.7
41
11/13
1.4
62
D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Value
Ptile
11/28
-0.8
47
09/11
-2.2
34
09/18
-2.5
32
09/26
-3.2
27
10/02
3.6
79
10/09
2.9
75
10/16
-3.0
29
10/23
8.2
94
10/30
-7.3
8
11/13
1.5
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Giants Defense
Lions logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
4
25
Passing Yards / Game
17
2
Rushing Yards / Game
11
28

EPA

EPA / Play
4
31
EPA / Pass
3
21
EPA / Rush
25
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
5
Interceptions / Game
2
32
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
30
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
5
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
4
10
Giants Offense vs Lions Defense
Giants logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
18
28
Yards / Game
19
32
Passing Yards / Game
25
22
Rushing Yards / Game
6
29

EPA

EPA / Play
8
30
EPA / Pass
17
24
EPA / Rush
3
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
31
Interceptions / Game
1
19
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
30
4th Down Efficiency
16
21
RZ Efficiency
5
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
7
W
W
O
09/11
-3
L
W
O
09/18
9
W
W
O
09/25
-4
L
W
P
10/02
-3
L
L
O
10/09
-29
L
L
U
10/23
-18
L
L
U
10/30
-4
L
L
O
11/06
6
W
W
U
11/13
1
W
W
O
NYG logo

Giants

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
-15
L
L
U
09/11
1
W
W
U
09/18
3
W
W
U
09/26
-7
L
L
O
10/02
8
W
W
U
10/09
5
W
W
O
10/16
4
W
W
U
10/23
6
W
W
U
10/30
-14
L
L
U
11/13
8
W
W
U