DETLions
3-6
31
TBD
MetLife Stadium
35°F
21 mph
18
NYGGiants
7-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
35°F
21 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
3
14
7
7
31
Giants
6
0
0
12
18
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
413
Total Plays
63
73
Yards / Play
5.2
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.10
Passing Yards
--
324
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
27/45(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.05
Rushing Yards
160
89
Rush Attempts
37
26
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
25
Passing 1st downs
9
17
Rushing 1st downs
12
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-14.83
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-2.56
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
45
63
Penalty EPA
-5.64
-6.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+38
Home nfelo
1,397
Away nfelo
1,409
Home Field
+39.8
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.4
Home QB Adjustment
+12.5
Away QB Adjustment
+3.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
22
Yards / Game
4
25
Passing Yards / Game
17
2
Rushing Yards / Game
11
28
EPA
EPA / Play
4
31
EPA / Pass
3
21
EPA / Rush
25
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
5
Interceptions / Game
2
32
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
30
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
5
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
4
10
Giants Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
28
Yards / Game
19
32
Passing Yards / Game
25
22
Rushing Yards / Game
6
29
EPA
EPA / Play
8
30
EPA / Pass
17
24
EPA / Rush
3
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
31
Interceptions / Game
1
19
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
30
4th Down Efficiency
16
21
RZ Efficiency
5
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Giants
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U