DETLions
1-3
0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
029
NEPatriots
1-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
0
0
0
0
Patriots
3
7
10
3
23
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
312
364
Total Plays
64
56
Yards / Play
4.9
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.39
+0.15
Passing Yards
211
--
Comp/Att
19/35(54%)
17/21(81%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.59
+0.31
Rushing Yards
101
176
Rush Attempts
27
35
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.95
-3.80
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-10.90
--
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
82
46
Penalty EPA
-7.26
-5.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+35
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,424
Home Field
+38.7
Base HFA
+38.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-96.3
Home QB Adjustment
-83.5
Away QB Adjustment
+12.8
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
B. Zappe
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-83.5
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
11
Yards / Game
4
9
Passing Yards / Game
17
27
Rushing Yards / Game
11
7
EPA
EPA / Play
4
2
EPA / Pass
3
3
EPA / Rush
25
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
14
Interceptions / Game
2
3
Fumbles / Game
11
20
Turnover EPA / Game
30
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
2
RZ Efficiency
4
21
Patriots Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
28
Yards / Game
26
32
Passing Yards / Game
19
22
Rushing Yards / Game
24
29
EPA
EPA / Play
26
30
EPA / Pass
22
24
EPA / Rush
24
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
31
Interceptions / Game
17
19
Fumbles / Game
29
14
Turnover EPA / Game
22
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
30
4th Down Efficiency
28
21
RZ Efficiency
32
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Patriots
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U