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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ ravens week 3, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DET logo
DETLions
1-1
38
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
74°F
7 mph
30
BALRavens
1-1
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
74°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
7
7
17
38
Ravens
7
7
7
9
30

Spread

DET logo
+4.5

Total

OVER
53.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
426
318
Total Plays
66
55
Yards / Play
6.5
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.37
+0.21
Passing Yards
--
233
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.51
+0.36
Rushing Yards
224
85
Rush Attempts
38
19
Yards / Rush
5.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
24
21
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
12
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
50%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.60
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-55
Sack EPA
--
-11.09
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
68
10
Penalty EPA
-9.34
-1.84

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+119
Home nfelo
1,669
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+53.1
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.4
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
-14.9
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
Value
Ptile
11/24
-1.6
37
11/28
1.9
62
12/05
6.1
85
12/15
13.6
99
12/22
8.0
93
12/30
7.1
90
01/05
-1.0
42
01/18
-4.6
19
09/07
-1.8
38
09/14
13.3
99
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
Value
Ptile
11/25
3.7
73
12/01
5.9
83
12/15
13.4
99
12/21
3.3
72
12/25
9.8
96
01/04
5.8
83
01/11
7.2
91
01/19
4.3
77
09/07
8.0
94
09/14
4.4
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Ravens Defense
Lions logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
5
24
Passing Yards / Game
11
32
Rushing Yards / Game
13
9

EPA

EPA / Play
6
18
EPA / Pass
4
21
EPA / Rush
24
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
12
Interceptions / Game
4
17
Fumbles / Game
12
6
Turnover EPA / Game
28
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
11
4th Down Efficiency
14
19
RZ Efficiency
8
4
Ravens Offense vs Lions Defense
Ravens logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
10
22
Yards / Game
15
17
Passing Yards / Game
16
23
Rushing Yards / Game
2
13

EPA

EPA / Play
12
13
EPA / Pass
24
14
EPA / Rush
1
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
15
Interceptions / Game
12
13
Fumbles / Game
28
23
Turnover EPA / Game
8
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
8
4th Down Efficiency
12
25
RZ Efficiency
27
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
18
W
W
U
11/28
3
W
L
U
12/05
3
W
P
O
12/15
-6
L
L
O
12/22
17
W
W
O
12/30
6
W
W
O
01/05
22
W
W
U
01/18
-14
L
L
O
09/07
-14
L
L
U
09/14
31
W
W
O
BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
7
W
W
O
12/01
-5
L
L
U
12/15
21
W
W
O
12/21
17
W
W
O
12/25
29
W
W
U
01/04
25
W
W
O
01/11
14
W
W
U
01/19
-2
L
L
O
09/07
-1
L
L
O
09/14
24
W
W
O