DETLions
1-1
38
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
74°F
7 mph
30
BALRavens
1-1
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
74°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
7
7
7
17
38
Ravens
7
7
7
9
30
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
426
318
Total Plays
66
55
Yards / Play
6.5
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.37
+0.21
Passing Yards
--
233
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.51
+0.36
Rushing Yards
224
85
Rush Attempts
38
19
Yards / Rush
5.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
21
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
12
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
50%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.60
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-55
Sack EPA
--
-11.09
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
68
10
Penalty EPA
-9.34
-1.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+117
Home nfelo
1,672
Away nfelo
1,608
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.4
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
-14.9
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+3.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
6
31
Passing Yards / Game
32
24
Rushing Yards / Game
6
27
EPA
EPA / Play
5
29
EPA / Pass
1
23
EPA / Rush
18
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
3
Interceptions / Game
9
24
Fumbles / Game
1
16
Turnover EPA / Game
29
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
24
4th Down Efficiency
6
27
RZ Efficiency
4
28
Ravens Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
15
Yards / Game
13
12
Passing Yards / Game
10
9
Rushing Yards / Game
9
7
EPA
EPA / Play
3
5
EPA / Pass
9
15
EPA / Rush
3
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
29
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
25
6
Turnover EPA / Game
15
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
22
4th Down Efficiency
28
6
RZ Efficiency
19
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U