DETLions
0-3
10
TBD
Lumen Field
74°F
8 mph
13
SEASeahawks
1-2
TBD
Lumen Field
74°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
3
0
1
4
Seahawks
0
10
3
0
13
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
256
345
Total Plays
53
63
Yards / Play
4.8
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.11
Passing Yards
--
235
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.10
Rushing Yards
53
110
Rush Attempts
18
31
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
18
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
23%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-0.57
-13.43
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-52
Sack EPA
--
-18.93
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
37
30
Penalty EPA
-4.31
-2.69
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+243
Home nfelo
1,622
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+3.5
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
-0.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Lions Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
3
Yards / Game
18
1
Passing Yards / Game
9
6
Rushing Yards / Game
31
3
EPA
EPA / Play
15
8
EPA / Pass
16
6
EPA / Rush
19
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
5
Interceptions / Game
17
19
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
13
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
7
4th Down Efficiency
15
2
RZ Efficiency
2
3
Seahawks Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
23
Yards / Game
8
18
Passing Yards / Game
18
29
Rushing Yards / Game
3
20
EPA
EPA / Play
3
24
EPA / Pass
1
23
EPA / Rush
12
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
9
Interceptions / Game
7
26
Fumbles / Game
5
12
Turnover EPA / Game
27
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
24
4th Down Efficiency
1
26
RZ Efficiency
15
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Lions
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Seahawks
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U