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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. lions @ seahawks week 17, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DET logo
DETLions
2-12
29
TBD
Lumen Field
37°F
0
51
SEASeahawks
5-10
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
37°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Lions
0
7
15
7
29
Seahawks
10
21
7
13
51

Spread

SEA logo
-7.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Lions logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
359
497
Total Plays
60
71
Yards / Play
6.0
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.34
Passing Yards
--
232
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.53
Rushing Yards
95
265
Rush Attempts
22
41
Yards / Rush
4.3
6.5
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
Lions logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
20
29
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
15
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
50%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
6
Red Zone Attempts
3
9
Negative Plays
Lions logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-13.35
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-4
Sack EPA
--
-1.10
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
30
31
Penalty EPA
-2.84
-5.19

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model81.9%
Spread Pick
SEA logo
Seahawks-7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+25.0%
Cover Probability
65.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+345
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,359
Home Field
+49.1
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+12.9
Net QB Adjustment
+123.4
Home QB Adjustment
-10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-134.2
Market Regression
-23.6
Final Difference
262.7
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

T. Boyle headshot

T. Boyle

Proj. Value
-3.8
Team Elo Adj
-134.2
Value
Ptile
11/21
-8.4
7
12/26
-3.0
32
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.8
Value
Ptile
09/26
2.1
68
10/03
1.2
61
10/07
-2.6
34
11/14
-9.0
6
11/21
-6.3
13
11/29
0.8
59
12/05
0.4
56
12/12
3.1
76
12/21
-7.6
9
12/26
-0.9
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Lions Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Lions logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
25
12
Yards / Game
22
28
Passing Yards / Game
25
32
Rushing Yards / Game
18
17

EPA

EPA / Play
23
17
EPA / Pass
21
24
EPA / Rush
25
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
7
Interceptions / Game
14
22
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
8
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
15
4th Down Efficiency
21
3
RZ Efficiency
31
3
Seahawks Offense vs Lions Defense
Seahawks logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
16
31
Yards / Game
20
29
Passing Yards / Game
24
24
Rushing Yards / Game
10
28

EPA

EPA / Play
13
30
EPA / Pass
17
29
EPA / Rush
6
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
19
Interceptions / Game
2
22
Fumbles / Game
5
11
Turnover EPA / Game
31
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
29
4th Down Efficiency
32
28
RZ Efficiency
3
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DET logo

Lions

2-7-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
-23
L
L
U
10/24
-9
L
W
U
10/31
-38
L
L
O
11/14
0
T
W
U
11/21
-3
L
W
U
11/25
-2
L
P
U
12/05
2
W
W
O
12/12
-28
L
L
O
12/19
18
W
W
U
12/26
-4
L
W
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
-3
L
W
P
10/25
-3
L
W
U
10/31
24
W
W
U
11/14
-17
L
L
U
11/21
-10
L
L
U
11/29
-2
L
L
U
12/05
7
W
W
O
12/12
20
W
W
O
12/21
-10
L
L
U
12/26
-1
L
L
O