GBPackers
6-6
27
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
29°F
24 mph
21
CLEBrowns
0-12
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
29°F
24 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Packers
7
0
0
14
6
27
Browns
7
7
7
0
0
21
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
345
Total Plays
74
57
Yards / Play
4.6
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.08
Passing Yards
256
209
Comp/Att
35/46(76%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.23
Rushing Yards
85
136
Rush Attempts
27
27
Yards / Rush
3.1
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
17
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
50%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.62
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-5
Sack EPA
-1.53
-2.08
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
20
45
Penalty EPA
-1.53
-6.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-52
Home nfelo
1,307
Away nfelo
1,544
Home Field
+65.4
Base HFA
+55.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+9.9
Net QB Adjustment
+120.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.6
Away QB Adjustment
-118.0
Market Regression
+62.9
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Hundley
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-118.0
D. Kizer
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
31
Yards / Game
26
13
Passing Yards / Game
17
31
Rushing Yards / Game
17
7
EPA
EPA / Play
17
27
EPA / Pass
23
27
EPA / Rush
2
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
6
Interceptions / Game
28
31
Fumbles / Game
7
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
23
4th Down Efficiency
10
18
RZ Efficiency
4
32
Browns Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
26
Yards / Game
24
23
Passing Yards / Game
15
25
Rushing Yards / Game
18
18
EPA
EPA / Play
31
29
EPA / Pass
32
30
EPA / Rush
4
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
5
Interceptions / Game
32
18
Fumbles / Game
25
9
Turnover EPA / Game
1
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
28
4th Down Efficiency
12
31
RZ Efficiency
24
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Browns
0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U