GBPackers
4-0
10
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
12 mph
38
TBBuccaneers
3-2
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
10
0
0
0
10
Buccaneers
0
22
10
0
32
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
201
324
Total Plays
61
63
Yards / Play
3.3
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.33
+0.13
Passing Yards
107
--
Comp/Att
16/35(46%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
3.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.50
+0.21
Rushing Yards
94
158
Rush Attempts
21
35
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
21
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
41%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-12.66
--
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-53
--
Sack EPA
-7.62
--
Penalties
6
--
Penalty Yards
76
--
Penalty EPA
-10.19
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-28
Home nfelo
1,590
Away nfelo
1,605
Home Field
+0.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-13.9
Home QB Adjustment
+12.9
Away QB Adjustment
+26.8
Market Regression
-21.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+26.8
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
7
Yards / Game
3
8
Passing Yards / Game
24
21
Rushing Yards / Game
8
1
EPA
EPA / Play
1
6
EPA / Pass
1
6
EPA / Rush
5
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
30
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
7
10
Turnover EPA / Game
32
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
17
4th Down Efficiency
9
13
RZ Efficiency
1
11
Buccaneers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
15
Yards / Game
9
7
Passing Yards / Game
12
19
Rushing Yards / Game
25
10
EPA
EPA / Play
5
17
EPA / Pass
5
11
EPA / Rush
21
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
29
Interceptions / Game
15
15
Fumbles / Game
4
23
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
14
4th Down Efficiency
13
19
RZ Efficiency
11
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
4-4-2
ATS
6-4
O/U