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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ buccaneers week 6, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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GB logo
GBPackers
4-0
10
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
12 mph
38
TBBuccaneers
3-2
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
10
0
0
0
10
Buccaneers
0
22
10
0
32

Spread

TB logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
55

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
201
324
Total Plays
61
63
Yards / Play
3.3
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.33
+0.13
Passing Yards
107
--
Comp/Att
16/35(46%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
3.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.50
+0.21
Rushing Yards
94
158
Rush Attempts
21
35
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
13
21
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
41%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-12.66
--
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-53
--
Sack EPA
-7.62
--
Penalties
6
--
Penalty Yards
76
--
Penalty EPA
-10.19
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-32
Home nfelo
1,587
Away nfelo
1,605
Home Field
+0.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-13.9
Home QB Adjustment
+12.9
Away QB Adjustment
+26.8
Market Regression
-21.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+26.8
Value
Ptile
12/08
-3.3
29
12/15
-0.5
49
12/23
-4.5
23
12/29
-3.2
30
01/12
0.7
57
01/19
2.1
67
09/13
12.9
98
09/20
1.1
52
09/27
6.1
84
10/05
9.0
95
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
Value
Ptile
12/08
-5.2
19
12/15
-5.3
18
12/21
7.1
90
12/29
-3.3
29
01/04
-4.3
23
09/13
-0.7
41
09/20
-0.4
43
09/27
3.9
72
10/04
8.9
94
10/08
-0.8
39

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Packers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
7
Yards / Game
3
8
Passing Yards / Game
24
21
Rushing Yards / Game
8
1

EPA

EPA / Play
1
6
EPA / Pass
1
6
EPA / Rush
5
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
30
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
7
10
Turnover EPA / Game
32
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
17
4th Down Efficiency
9
13
RZ Efficiency
1
11
Buccaneers Offense vs Packers Defense
Buccaneers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
15
Yards / Game
9
7
Passing Yards / Game
12
19
Rushing Yards / Game
25
10

EPA

EPA / Play
5
17
EPA / Pass
5
11
EPA / Rush
21
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
29
Interceptions / Game
15
15
Fumbles / Game
4
23
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
14
4th Down Efficiency
13
19
RZ Efficiency
11
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
5
W
L
U
12/15
8
W
W
U
12/23
13
W
W
U
12/29
3
W
L
U
01/12
5
W
W
O
01/19
-17
L
L
O
09/13
9
W
W
O
09/20
21
W
W
O
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/05
14
W
W
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

6-4
SU
4-4-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
17
W
W
U
12/08
3
W
P
O
12/15
21
W
W
O
12/21
-3
L
P
U
12/29
-6
L
L
O
09/13
-11
L
L
O
09/20
14
W
W
O
09/27
18
W
W
U
10/04
7
W
L
O
10/08
-1
L
L
U