GBPackers
3-1
27
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
023
ARICardinals
2-4
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
6
7
14
27
Cardinals
3
10
7
3
23
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
262
330
Total Plays
53
70
Yards / Play
4.9
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.05
Passing Yards
168
236
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.03
Rushing Yards
94
94
Rush Attempts
23
28
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
23
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
5
3rd Down %
30%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.86
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-11
-43
Sack EPA
-2.02
-12.37
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
94
55
Penalty EPA
-11.34
-5.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-148
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,590
Home Field
+48.1
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
-74.7
Home QB Adjustment
-66.3
Away QB Adjustment
+8.4
Market Regression
-15.6
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Love
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-66.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
25
Yards / Game
12
21
Passing Yards / Game
19
31
Rushing Yards / Game
19
16
EPA
EPA / Play
5
21
EPA / Pass
2
21
EPA / Rush
13
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
3
Interceptions / Game
3
18
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
27
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
14
4th Down Efficiency
9
4
RZ Efficiency
4
18
Cardinals Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
7
Yards / Game
14
6
Passing Yards / Game
15
13
Rushing Yards / Game
24
7
EPA
EPA / Play
24
20
EPA / Pass
15
20
EPA / Rush
25
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
27
Interceptions / Game
10
27
Fumbles / Game
28
19
Turnover EPA / Game
11
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
12
4th Down Efficiency
27
19
RZ Efficiency
18
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
5-4-1
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cardinals
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U