GBPackers
10-4
8
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
038
ARICardinals
12-2
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
8
0
8
Cardinals
0
17
9
0
26
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
180
381
Total Plays
65
56
Yards / Play
2.8
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.46
+0.02
Passing Yards
79
260
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
2.6
9.3
EPA / Pass
-0.95
+0.14
Rushing Yards
101
121
Rush Attempts
26
26
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
29%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-22.96
-10.89
Sacks
9
2
Sack Yards
-78
-9
Sack EPA
-24.55
-3.43
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
59
119
Penalty EPA
-1.62
-13.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model66.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+90
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+69.7
Base HFA
+59.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.6
Net QB Adjustment
+42.2
Home QB Adjustment
+25.0
Away QB Adjustment
-17.2
Market Regression
+5.7
Final Difference
121.7
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-17.2
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+25.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
13
Yards / Game
22
7
Passing Yards / Game
16
27
Rushing Yards / Game
9
8
EPA
EPA / Play
10
11
EPA / Pass
18
8
EPA / Rush
8
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
27
Interceptions / Game
2
4
Fumbles / Game
10
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
12
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
16
15
Cardinals Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
11
Yards / Game
2
17
Passing Yards / Game
2
8
Rushing Yards / Game
12
19
EPA
EPA / Play
2
13
EPA / Pass
3
7
EPA / Rush
11
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
10
Interceptions / Game
23
8
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
11
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
8
4th Down Efficiency
6
14
RZ Efficiency
10
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cardinals
9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U