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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ cardinals week 16, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
10-4
8
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
38
ARICardinals
12-2
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
8
0
8
Cardinals
0
17
9
0
26

Spread

ARI logo
-6

Total

UNDER
50

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
180
381
Total Plays
65
56
Yards / Play
2.8
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.46
+0.02
Passing Yards
79
260
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
2.6
9.3
EPA / Pass
-0.95
+0.14
Rushing Yards
101
121
Rush Attempts
26
26
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
29%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-22.96
-10.89
Sacks
9
2
Sack Yards
-78
-9
Sack EPA
-24.55
-3.43
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
59
119
Penalty EPA
-1.62
-13.29

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model67.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+92
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,624
Home Field
+70.5
Base HFA
+59.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.7
Net QB Adjustment
+42.2
Home QB Adjustment
+25.0
Away QB Adjustment
-17.2
Market Regression
+6.7
Final Difference
122.7
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-17.2
Value
Ptile
10/11
0.0
51
10/18
0.3
52
11/01
-3.5
25
11/08
2.9
72
11/15
1.1
57
11/22
-1.8
37
11/26
-3.5
26
12/03
3.3
75
12/13
2.4
67
12/20
-4.3
19
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+25.0
Value
Ptile
10/11
1.0
56
10/18
1.7
63
10/26
2.4
67
11/01
7.1
91
11/15
3.5
75
11/22
3.3
75
11/29
1.2
59
12/06
4.9
81
12/10
4.2
79
12/20
0.2
52

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Packers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
14
13
Yards / Game
22
7
Passing Yards / Game
16
27
Rushing Yards / Game
9
8

EPA

EPA / Play
10
11
EPA / Pass
18
8
EPA / Rush
8
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
27
Interceptions / Game
2
4
Fumbles / Game
10
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
12
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
16
15
Cardinals Offense vs Packers Defense
Cardinals logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
11
Yards / Game
2
17
Passing Yards / Game
2
8
Rushing Yards / Game
12
19

EPA

EPA / Play
2
13
EPA / Pass
3
7
EPA / Rush
11
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
10
Interceptions / Game
23
8
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
11
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
8
4th Down Efficiency
6
14
RZ Efficiency
10
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
14
W
W
U
10/18
7
W
L
U
11/01
-19
L
L
U
11/08
-8
L
L
O
11/15
-2
L
L
U
11/22
17
W
W
U
11/26
-4
L
L
U
12/03
4
W
W
O
12/13
21
W
W
U
12/20
10
W
W
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
25
W
W
O
10/18
-12
L
L
U
10/26
8
W
L
U
11/01
14
W
W
O
11/15
7
W
W
O
11/22
3
W
L
O
11/29
6
W
L
U
12/06
24
W
W
U
12/10
3
W
L
U
12/20
23
W
W
O