GBPackers
11-6
20
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
026
ARICardinals
13-3
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Packers
0
6
7
7
0
20
Cardinals
7
0
3
10
6
26
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
386
368
Total Plays
67
63
Yards / Play
5.8
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.09
Passing Yards
251
328
Comp/Att
24/44(55%)
25/41(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.18
Rushing Yards
135
40
Rush Attempts
22
19
Yards / Rush
6.1
2.1
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.47
-7.72
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-21
Sack EPA
-0.56
-3.42
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
55
26
Penalty EPA
-7.60
-3.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+176
Home nfelo
1,624
Away nfelo
1,596
Home Field
+85.8
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.5
Net QB Adjustment
+45.5
Home QB Adjustment
+13.9
Away QB Adjustment
-31.5
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-31.5
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+13.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
13
Yards / Game
22
7
Passing Yards / Game
16
27
Rushing Yards / Game
9
8
EPA
EPA / Play
10
11
EPA / Pass
18
8
EPA / Rush
8
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
27
Interceptions / Game
2
4
Fumbles / Game
10
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
12
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
16
15
Cardinals Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
11
Yards / Game
2
17
Passing Yards / Game
2
8
Rushing Yards / Game
12
19
EPA
EPA / Play
2
13
EPA / Pass
3
7
EPA / Rush
11
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
10
Interceptions / Game
23
8
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
11
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
8
4th Down Efficiency
6
14
RZ Efficiency
10
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cardinals
9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U