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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ cardinals week 19, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
11-6
20
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
26
ARICardinals
13-3
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Packers
0
6
7
7
0
20
Cardinals
7
0
3
10
6
26

Spread

GB logo
+7

Total

UNDER
49

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
386
368
Total Plays
67
63
Yards / Play
5.8
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.09
Passing Yards
251
328
Comp/Att
24/44(55%)
25/41(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.18
Rushing Yards
135
40
Rush Attempts
22
19
Yards / Rush
6.1
2.1
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.47
-7.72
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-21
Sack EPA
-0.56
-3.42
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
55
26
Penalty EPA
-7.60
-3.18

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+182
Home nfelo
1,626
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+86.9
Base HFA
+59.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.0
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.6
Net QB Adjustment
+45.5
Home QB Adjustment
+13.9
Away QB Adjustment
-31.5
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-31.5
Value
Ptile
11/08
2.9
72
11/15
1.1
57
11/22
-1.8
37
11/26
-3.5
26
12/03
3.3
75
12/13
2.4
67
12/20
-4.3
19
12/27
-10.7
1
01/03
-2.8
31
01/10
-0.1
50
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+13.9
Value
Ptile
10/26
2.4
67
11/01
7.1
91
11/15
3.5
75
11/22
3.3
75
11/29
1.2
59
12/06
4.9
81
12/10
4.2
79
12/20
0.2
52
12/27
1.1
58
01/03
-3.9
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Packers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
14
13
Yards / Game
22
7
Passing Yards / Game
16
27
Rushing Yards / Game
9
8

EPA

EPA / Play
10
11
EPA / Pass
18
8
EPA / Rush
8
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
27
Interceptions / Game
2
4
Fumbles / Game
10
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
12
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
16
15
Cardinals Offense vs Packers Defense
Cardinals logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
11
Yards / Game
2
17
Passing Yards / Game
2
8
Rushing Yards / Game
12
19

EPA

EPA / Play
2
13
EPA / Pass
3
7
EPA / Rush
11
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
10
Interceptions / Game
23
8
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
11
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
8
4th Down Efficiency
6
14
RZ Efficiency
10
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
-8
L
L
O
11/15
-2
L
L
U
11/22
17
W
W
U
11/26
-4
L
L
U
12/03
4
W
W
O
12/13
21
W
W
U
12/20
10
W
W
O
12/27
-30
L
L
U
01/03
-7
L
L
U
01/10
17
W
W
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
8
W
L
U
11/01
14
W
W
O
11/15
7
W
W
O
11/22
3
W
L
O
11/29
6
W
L
U
12/06
24
W
W
U
12/10
3
W
L
U
12/20
23
W
W
O
12/27
30
W
W
U
01/03
-30
L
L
U