GBPackers
6-1
31
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
54°F
5 mph
24
KCChiefs
5-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
54°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
14
0
3
14
31
Chiefs
0
17
0
7
24
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
337
Total Plays
64
58
Yards / Play
5.8
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.07
Passing Yards
256
249
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.42
+0.21
Rushing Yards
118
88
Rush Attempts
26
20
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
15
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
62%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.60
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-49
-18
Sack EPA
-6.30
-3.88
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
25
30
Penalty EPA
-4.70
-2.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model62.8%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+5.5
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-43
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,569
Home Field
+70.1
Base HFA
+52.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-140.3
Home QB Adjustment
-119.1
Away QB Adjustment
+21.2
Market Regression
-22.7
Final Difference
-91.0
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.2
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-119.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
10
Yards / Game
17
17
Passing Yards / Game
13
15
Rushing Yards / Game
15
25
EPA
EPA / Play
7
16
EPA / Pass
10
9
EPA / Rush
9
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
28
Interceptions / Game
1
4
Fumbles / Game
10
24
Turnover EPA / Game
31
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
10
4th Down Efficiency
8
17
RZ Efficiency
2
10
Chiefs Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
12
Yards / Game
4
18
Passing Yards / Game
5
8
Rushing Yards / Game
22
26
EPA
EPA / Play
2
18
EPA / Pass
2
8
EPA / Rush
7
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
20
Interceptions / Game
3
5
Fumbles / Game
14
20
Turnover EPA / Game
29
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
13
4th Down Efficiency
3
15
RZ Efficiency
11
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U