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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ dolphins week 6, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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GB logo
GBPackers
3-2
27
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
86°F
13 mph
24
MIADolphins
2-2
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
86°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
3
7
10
27
Dolphins
3
0
7
14
24

Spread

GB logo
-1.5

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
369
349
Total Plays
79
55
Yards / Play
4.7
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.06
Passing Yards
248
237
Comp/Att
24/42(57%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.21
Rushing Yards
121
112
Rush Attempts
34
23
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
27
19
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
47%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.17
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-16
-7
Sack EPA
-4.21
-0.96
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
44
25
Penalty EPA
-3.59
-4.92

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-62
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,617
Home Field
+91.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.5
Away QB Adjustment
+15.2
Market Regression
+66.7
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+15.2
Value
Ptile
10/20
6.9
90
10/27
6.6
88
11/04
-6.0
14
12/29
0.2
51
01/05
-2.1
38
09/04
-1.8
37
09/14
5.2
83
09/21
-1.9
36
09/28
10.4
97
10/02
0.8
55
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Value
Ptile
11/24
3.4
73
12/01
5.6
85
12/08
4.4
81
12/15
3.8
75
12/22
-12.5
1
12/29
-4.9
19
09/07
-2.3
34
09/14
-1.8
37
09/21
-5.5
17
09/28
5.9
85

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Packers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
2
19
Yards / Game
6
11
Passing Yards / Game
3
11
Rushing Yards / Game
10
23

EPA

EPA / Play
3
19
EPA / Pass
2
20
EPA / Rush
12
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
10
Interceptions / Game
2
16
Fumbles / Game
10
6
Turnover EPA / Game
29
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
28
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
11
13
Dolphins Offense vs Packers Defense
Dolphins logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
14
Yards / Game
14
15
Passing Yards / Game
17
28
Rushing Yards / Game
12
26

EPA

EPA / Play
13
17
EPA / Pass
16
7
EPA / Rush
15
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
25
Interceptions / Game
8
4
Fumbles / Game
15
19
Turnover EPA / Game
18
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
18
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
21
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
4-4-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
1
W
L
U
12/15
1
W
W
O
12/22
-7
L
L
O
12/29
5
W
W
O
01/05
-3
L
P
U
09/04
-20
L
L
O
09/14
7
W
P
O
09/21
-12
L
L
U
09/28
21
W
W
O
10/02
32
W
W
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
-4
L
W
U
12/01
20
W
W
U
12/08
6
W
W
O
12/15
4
W
W
U
12/22
-19
L
L
U
12/29
-13
L
L
U
09/07
13
W
W
O
09/14
-19
L
L
U
09/21
-19
L
L
O
09/28
24
W
W
O