GBPackers
3-2
27
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
86°F
13 mph
24
MIADolphins
2-2
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
86°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
3
7
10
27
Dolphins
3
0
7
14
24
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
369
349
Total Plays
79
55
Yards / Play
4.7
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.06
Passing Yards
248
237
Comp/Att
24/42(57%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.21
Rushing Yards
121
112
Rush Attempts
34
23
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
19
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
47%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.17
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-16
-7
Sack EPA
-4.21
-0.96
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
44
25
Penalty EPA
-3.59
-4.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-63
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,618
Home Field
+91.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.5
Away QB Adjustment
+15.2
Market Regression
+66.7
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.2
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
19
Yards / Game
6
11
Passing Yards / Game
3
11
Rushing Yards / Game
10
23
EPA
EPA / Play
3
19
EPA / Pass
2
20
EPA / Rush
12
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
10
Interceptions / Game
2
16
Fumbles / Game
10
6
Turnover EPA / Game
29
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
28
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
11
13
Dolphins Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
14
Yards / Game
14
15
Passing Yards / Game
17
28
Rushing Yards / Game
12
26
EPA
EPA / Play
13
17
EPA / Pass
16
7
EPA / Rush
15
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
25
Interceptions / Game
8
4
Fumbles / Game
15
19
Turnover EPA / Game
18
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
18
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
21
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
4-4-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U