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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ giants week 11, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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GB logo
GBPackers
5-3
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
55°F
17 mph
20
NYGGiants
2-8
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
55°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
13
6
8
27
Giants
7
6
0
7
20

Spread

NYG logo
+7.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
298
336
Total Plays
52
69
Yards / Play
5.7
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.38
+0.15
Passing Yards
170
194
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.46
+0.22
Rushing Yards
128
142
Rush Attempts
23
38
Yards / Rush
5.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.25
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
64%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.01
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-12
-7
Sack EPA
-0.74
-3.42
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
48
77
Penalty EPA
-5.62
-7.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market74.9%
Model72.2%
Spread Pick
NYG logo
Giants+7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.7%
Cover Probability
58.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-126
Home nfelo
1,424
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+65.7
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-34.9
Home QB Adjustment
-26.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-165.6
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Value
Ptile
01/12
-7.7
6
09/07
2.1
65
09/11
3.0
72
09/21
-4.3
22
09/28
9.5
96
10/12
1.7
62
10/19
-0.2
49
10/26
10.5
98
11/02
-0.0
51
11/10
-3.6
25
J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-26.7
Value
Ptile
09/11
-0.1
52
09/18
-9.7
3
09/25
0.0
53
10/27
6.3
86
11/03
-9.9
3
11/17
5.7
82
11/21
1.3
58
12/02
4.7
79
12/08
-1.9
35
12/15
-12.8
0

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Giants Defense
Packers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
13
26
Yards / Game
10
29
Passing Yards / Game
16
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
30

EPA

EPA / Play
3
27
EPA / Pass
2
18
EPA / Rush
21
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
10
Interceptions / Game
3
24
Fumbles / Game
15
24
Turnover EPA / Game
30
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
30
RZ Efficiency
16
28
Giants Offense vs Packers Defense
Giants logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
11
Yards / Game
15
11
Passing Yards / Game
6
5
Rushing Yards / Game
6
15

EPA

EPA / Play
20
25
EPA / Pass
23
22
EPA / Rush
6
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
6
24
Turnover EPA / Game
23
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
18
4th Down Efficiency
26
15
RZ Efficiency
28
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

5-4-1
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/12
-12
L
L
U
09/07
14
W
W
U
09/11
9
W
W
U
09/21
-3
L
L
U
09/28
0
T
L
O
10/12
9
W
L
O
10/19
4
W
L
O
10/26
10
W
W
O
11/02
-3
L
L
U
11/10
-3
L
L
U
NYG logo

Giants

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
-15
L
L
U
09/14
-3
L
W
O
09/21
-13
L
L
U
09/28
3
W
W
U
10/05
-12
L
L
U
10/09
17
W
W
O
10/19
-1
L
W
O
10/26
-18
L
L
O
11/02
-10
L
L
O
11/09
-4
L
W
U