GBPackers
5-8
44
TBD
MetLife Stadium
43°F
8 mph
38
NYJJets
4-10
TBD
MetLife Stadium
43°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Packers
0
17
3
18
6
44
Jets
7
14
14
3
0
38
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
542
370
Total Plays
80
57
Yards / Play
6.8
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.32
+0.32
Passing Yards
413
323
Comp/Att
37/55(67%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
9.2
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.57
Rushing Yards
129
47
Rush Attempts
21
20
Yards / Rush
6.1
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.53
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
35
23
Passing 1st downs
19
18
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
7
1
3rd Down %
42%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
80%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.88
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-29
-18
Sack EPA
-5.53
-4.22
Penalties
10
16
Penalty Yards
86
172
Penalty EPA
-9.81
-19.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-92
Home nfelo
1,358
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+88.0
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+4.8
Home QB Adjustment
-0.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.3
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
29
Yards / Game
10
25
Passing Yards / Game
4
11
Rushing Yards / Game
22
26
EPA
EPA / Play
14
18
EPA / Pass
16
20
EPA / Rush
2
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
19
Interceptions / Game
1
16
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
30
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
2
4th Down Efficiency
19
25
RZ Efficiency
14
9
Jets Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
22
Yards / Game
29
18
Passing Yards / Game
23
21
Rushing Yards / Game
26
23
EPA
EPA / Play
29
24
EPA / Pass
27
30
EPA / Rush
31
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
2
Interceptions / Game
29
29
Fumbles / Game
22
5
Turnover EPA / Game
4
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
13
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
30
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U