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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ jets week 16, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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GB logo
GBPackers
5-8
44
TBD
MetLife Stadium
43°F
8 mph
38
NYJJets
4-10
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
43°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Packers
0
17
3
18
6
44
Jets
7
14
14
3
0
38

Spread

GB logo
-3

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
542
370
Total Plays
80
57
Yards / Play
6.8
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.32
+0.32
Passing Yards
413
323
Comp/Att
37/55(67%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
9.2
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.57
Rushing Yards
129
47
Rush Attempts
21
20
Yards / Rush
6.1
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.53
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
35
23
Passing 1st downs
19
18
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
7
1
3rd Down %
42%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
80%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.88
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-29
-18
Sack EPA
-5.53
-4.22
Penalties
10
16
Penalty Yards
86
172
Penalty EPA
-9.81
-19.12

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-90
Home nfelo
1,355
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+89.0
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+4.8
Home QB Adjustment
-0.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.3
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
Value
Ptile
10/07
6.9
89
10/15
5.4
82
10/28
0.4
49
11/04
1.3
56
11/11
1.6
58
11/15
2.1
63
11/25
-2.9
29
12/02
2.2
64
12/09
0.3
48
12/16
-3.0
27
S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
Value
Ptile
09/16
-2.7
30
09/20
-9.8
3
09/30
-3.9
22
10/07
-1.2
38
10/14
2.3
65
10/21
-9.7
4
10/28
-2.2
32
11/04
-13.9
1
12/09
0.1
47
12/15
2.6
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Jets Defense
Packers logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
14
29
Yards / Game
10
25
Passing Yards / Game
4
11
Rushing Yards / Game
22
26

EPA

EPA / Play
14
18
EPA / Pass
16
20
EPA / Rush
2
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
19
Interceptions / Game
1
16
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
30
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
2
4th Down Efficiency
19
25
RZ Efficiency
14
9
Jets Offense vs Packers Defense
Jets logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
22
Yards / Game
29
18
Passing Yards / Game
23
21
Rushing Yards / Game
26
23

EPA

EPA / Play
29
24
EPA / Pass
27
30
EPA / Rush
31
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
2
Interceptions / Game
29
29
Fumbles / Game
22
5
Turnover EPA / Game
4
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
13
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
30
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
-8
L
L
O
10/15
3
W
L
O
10/28
-2
L
W
U
11/04
-14
L
L
U
11/11
19
W
W
U
11/15
-3
L
P
O
11/25
-7
L
L
U
12/02
-3
L
L
U
12/09
14
W
W
O
12/16
-7
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
18
W
W
O
10/14
8
W
W
O
10/21
-20
L
L
O
10/28
-14
L
L
U
11/04
-7
L
L
U
11/11
-31
L
L
O
11/25
-14
L
L
U
12/02
-4
L
W
O
12/09
4
W
W
O
12/15
-7
L
P
O