GBPackers
2-1
23
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
031
DETLions
1-3
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
14
9
23
Lions
14
10
0
7
31
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
523
264
Total Plays
78
57
Yards / Play
6.7
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.09
Passing Yards
425
170
Comp/Att
32/54(59%)
14/26(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.27
Rushing Yards
98
94
Rush Attempts
20
28
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
18
Passing 1st downs
23
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
30%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-7.55
+6.82
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-19
-13
Sack EPA
-10.31
-4.03
Penalties
12
8
Penalty Yards
112
71
Penalty EPA
-13.36
-6.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+35
Home nfelo
1,513
Away nfelo
1,541
Home Field
+61.0
Base HFA
+56.7
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+1.8
Home QB Adjustment
+11.9
Away QB Adjustment
+10.2
Market Regression
+2.0
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
16
Yards / Game
10
9
Passing Yards / Game
4
25
Rushing Yards / Game
22
11
EPA
EPA / Play
14
15
EPA / Pass
16
24
EPA / Rush
2
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
14
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
30
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
12
4th Down Efficiency
19
11
RZ Efficiency
14
11
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
24
18
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
23
23
EPA
EPA / Play
23
24
EPA / Pass
22
30
EPA / Rush
25
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
14
29
Fumbles / Game
18
5
Turnover EPA / Game
17
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
13
4th Down Efficiency
9
28
RZ Efficiency
25
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
4-5-1
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U