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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ lions week 5, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
2-1
23
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
31
DETLions
1-3
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
14
9
23
Lions
14
10
0
7
31

Spread

DET logo
-1

Total

OVER
50

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
523
264
Total Plays
78
57
Yards / Play
6.7
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.09
Passing Yards
425
170
Comp/Att
32/54(59%)
14/26(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.27
Rushing Yards
98
94
Rush Attempts
20
28
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
30
18
Passing 1st downs
23
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
30%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-7.55
+6.82
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-19
-13
Sack EPA
-10.31
-4.03
Penalties
12
8
Penalty Yards
112
71
Penalty EPA
-13.36
-6.73

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+35
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,539
Home Field
+61.8
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+1.8
Home QB Adjustment
+11.9
Away QB Adjustment
+10.2
Market Regression
+1.8
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
Value
Ptile
09/17
2.5
70
09/24
1.5
64
09/28
3.1
75
10/08
2.3
69
10/15
-5.5
17
12/17
-0.4
49
09/09
6.1
85
09/16
1.9
61
09/23
1.6
58
09/30
-0.3
44
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Value
Ptile
11/23
-1.6
41
12/03
2.7
72
12/10
6.2
88
12/16
1.6
64
12/24
-4.0
25
12/31
5.1
85
09/10
-4.8
19
09/16
6.8
89
09/23
3.8
73
09/30
4.7
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Packers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
14
16
Yards / Game
10
9
Passing Yards / Game
4
25
Rushing Yards / Game
22
11

EPA

EPA / Play
14
15
EPA / Pass
16
24
EPA / Rush
2
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
14
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
30
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
12
4th Down Efficiency
19
11
RZ Efficiency
14
11
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Lions logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
24
18
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
23
23

EPA

EPA / Play
23
24
EPA / Pass
22
30
EPA / Rush
25
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
14
29
Fumbles / Game
18
5
Turnover EPA / Game
17
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
13
4th Down Efficiency
9
28
RZ Efficiency
25
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

4-5-1
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
-3
L
W
O
12/03
6
W
W
O
12/10
6
W
W
O
12/17
-7
L
L
O
12/23
-16
L
L
U
12/31
-24
L
L
O
09/09
1
W
L
O
09/16
0
T
W
O
09/23
-14
L
L
O
09/30
22
W
W
U
DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-7
L
L
O
12/03
-24
L
L
O
12/10
3
W
W
U
12/16
10
W
W
U
12/24
-9
L
L
U
12/31
24
W
W
O
09/10
-31
L
L
O
09/16
-3
L
W
O
09/23
16
W
W
U
09/30
-2
L
W
O