GBPackers
9-3
31
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
024
DETLions
5-7
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
7
7
10
31
Lions
7
7
0
10
24
Spread
+8.5
Total
UNDER
55.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
410
293
Total Plays
64
59
Yards / Play
6.4
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.34
+0.19
Passing Yards
--
242
Comp/Att
26/33(79%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.54
+0.15
Rushing Yards
120
51
Rush Attempts
31
15
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
27
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
73%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-31
Sack EPA
--
-4.40
Penalties
12
4
Penalty Yards
68
30
Penalty EPA
-8.70
-4.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.4%
Model78.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-250
Home nfelo
1,392
Away nfelo
1,612
Home Field
+4.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-35.0
Home QB Adjustment
-2.8
Away QB Adjustment
+32.2
Market Regression
+20.6
Final Difference
-221.3
Model Spread
+9.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+32.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
3
32
Passing Yards / Game
24
32
Rushing Yards / Game
8
28
EPA
EPA / Play
1
32
EPA / Pass
1
32
EPA / Rush
5
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
10
Interceptions / Game
1
30
Fumbles / Game
7
27
Turnover EPA / Game
32
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
28
4th Down Efficiency
9
22
RZ Efficiency
1
31
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
15
Yards / Game
20
7
Passing Yards / Game
9
19
Rushing Yards / Game
30
10
EPA
EPA / Play
20
17
EPA / Pass
18
11
EPA / Rush
29
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
29
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
12
23
Turnover EPA / Game
7
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
14
4th Down Efficiency
24
19
RZ Efficiency
10
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U