GBPackers
7-8
11
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
035
DETLions
8-7
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
0
0
8
11
Lions
3
17
7
8
35
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
258
358
Total Plays
64
55
Yards / Play
4.0
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.36
+0.05
Passing Yards
155
307
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
10.2
EPA / Pass
-0.44
+0.37
Rushing Yards
103
51
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
29%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.77
+4.66
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-40
-18
Sack EPA
-9.68
-5.26
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
68
--
Penalty EPA
-5.15
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model71.8%
Spread Pick
Packers+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+127
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+60.3
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
-25.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
+10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+97.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.3
Away QB Adjustment
-95.4
Market Regression
-1.0
Final Difference
162.0
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
B. Hundley
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-95.4
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
21
Yards / Game
26
27
Passing Yards / Game
17
16
Rushing Yards / Game
17
19
EPA
EPA / Play
17
4
EPA / Pass
23
11
EPA / Rush
2
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
7
Interceptions / Game
28
3
Fumbles / Game
7
4
Turnover EPA / Game
11
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
15
4th Down Efficiency
10
21
RZ Efficiency
4
28
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
26
Yards / Game
13
23
Passing Yards / Game
4
25
Rushing Yards / Game
32
18
EPA
EPA / Play
20
29
EPA / Pass
12
30
EPA / Rush
32
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
5
Interceptions / Game
10
18
Fumbles / Game
28
9
Turnover EPA / Game
9
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
28
4th Down Efficiency
31
31
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Lions
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U