GBPackers
2-2
19
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
61°F
10 mph
17
BALRavens
3-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
61°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
3
10
3
19
Ravens
0
0
3
14
17
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
438
360
Total Plays
65
61
Yards / Play
6.7
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.09
Passing Yards
298
313
Comp/Att
17/32(53%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
9.2
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.09
Rushing Yards
140
47
Rush Attempts
30
22
Yards / Rush
4.7
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.54
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
15
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
35%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-3.98
+0.24
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-17
-29
Sack EPA
-5.33
-9.60
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
55
--
Penalty EPA
-5.14
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-16
Home nfelo
1,565
Away nfelo
1,656
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-21.3
Home QB Adjustment
-13.1
Away QB Adjustment
+8.3
Market Regression
+11.5
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-13.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
11
Yards / Game
4
12
Passing Yards / Game
5
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
10
EPA
EPA / Play
8
10
EPA / Pass
10
13
EPA / Rush
4
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
4
Interceptions / Game
16
14
Fumbles / Game
8
29
Turnover EPA / Game
13
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
3
4th Down Efficiency
2
23
RZ Efficiency
25
8
Ravens Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
24
Yards / Game
28
24
Passing Yards / Game
12
29
Rushing Yards / Game
30
25
EPA
EPA / Play
23
28
EPA / Pass
21
26
EPA / Rush
31
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
8
Interceptions / Game
31
26
Fumbles / Game
9
9
Turnover EPA / Game
18
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
17
4th Down Efficiency
23
25
RZ Efficiency
31
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U