GBPackers
-
3
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
86°F
9 mph
38
NOSaints
-
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
86°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
3
0
0
3
Saints
3
14
7
14
38
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
229
322
Total Plays
52
60
Yards / Play
4.4
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.37
+0.36
Passing Yards
186
--
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
15/21(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.51
+0.80
Rushing Yards
43
171
Rush Attempts
15
39
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
10%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.64
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-7.12
--
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
33
36
Penalty EPA
-6.30
-5.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model60.9%
Spread Pick
Saints+3.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-22
Home nfelo
1,644
Away nfelo
1,633
Home Field
--
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-32.8
Home QB Adjustment
-15.7
Away QB Adjustment
+17.1
Market Regression
-31.2
Final Difference
-77.4
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+17.1
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-15.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
4
Yards / Game
12
6
Passing Yards / Game
8
13
Rushing Yards / Game
19
4
EPA
EPA / Play
3
1
EPA / Pass
3
3
EPA / Rush
7
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
18
Interceptions / Game
1
6
Fumbles / Game
6
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
5
4th Down Efficiency
9
5
RZ Efficiency
18
1
Saints Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
10
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
31
15
Rushing Yards / Game
16
10
EPA
EPA / Play
28
22
EPA / Pass
24
7
EPA / Rush
27
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
20
Interceptions / Game
12
7
Fumbles / Game
3
16
Turnover EPA / Game
18
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
24
4th Down Efficiency
17
7
RZ Efficiency
16
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U