GBPackers
4-4
24
TBD
Lumen Field
54°F
6 mph
27
SEASeahawks
4-5
TBD
Lumen Field
54°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
14
7
0
3
24
Seahawks
3
14
0
10
27
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
378
Total Plays
48
69
Yards / Play
7.5
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.07
Passing Yards
311
205
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
10.4
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.16
Rushing Yards
48
173
Rush Attempts
13
35
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
23
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
27%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.45
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-21
-20
Sack EPA
-7.54
-3.32
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
80
--
Penalty EPA
-7.05
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+63
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,555
Home Field
+98.3
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+20.6
Net QB Adjustment
-3.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.0
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
13
Yards / Game
10
19
Passing Yards / Game
4
24
Rushing Yards / Game
22
18
EPA
EPA / Play
14
19
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
2
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
8
Interceptions / Game
1
19
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
30
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
5
RZ Efficiency
14
8
Seahawks Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
22
Yards / Game
18
18
Passing Yards / Game
19
21
Rushing Yards / Game
1
23
EPA
EPA / Play
6
24
EPA / Pass
8
30
EPA / Rush
5
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
2
Interceptions / Game
2
29
Fumbles / Game
2
5
Turnover EPA / Game
31
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
13
4th Down Efficiency
3
28
RZ Efficiency
6
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
4-5-1
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Seahawks
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U