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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ seahawks week 20, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
13-4
22
TBD
Lumen Field
52°F
15 mph
28
SEASeahawks
13-4
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
52°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Packers
13
3
0
6
0
22
Seahawks
0
0
7
15
6
28

Spread

GB logo
+8.5

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
306
399
Total Plays
65
71
Yards / Play
4.7
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.16
Passing Yards
171
205
Comp/Att
19/34(56%)
15/31(48%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.19
Rushing Yards
135
194
Rush Attempts
30
35
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
21%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
2
5
Interceptions
2
4
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.28
-21.28
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-7
-25
Sack EPA
-1.93
-4.53
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
45
40
Penalty EPA
+5.70
-6.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model73.1%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers+8.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.0%
Cover Probability
59.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+98
Home nfelo
1,685
Away nfelo
1,647
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-11.2
Home QB Adjustment
+16.5
Away QB Adjustment
+27.7
Market Regression
+41.1
Final Difference
173.5
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+27.7
Value
Ptile
10/26
5.2
83
11/09
11.3
98
11/16
9.0
94
11/23
3.9
76
11/30
5.4
83
12/08
8.3
92
12/14
-6.1
15
12/21
5.8
85
12/28
8.2
92
01/11
6.0
87
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
Value
Ptile
11/02
-4.3
24
11/09
1.1
57
11/16
4.9
82
11/23
0.6
53
11/27
1.5
61
12/07
6.6
87
12/14
-6.2
14
12/21
14.3
99
12/28
-4.2
25
01/10
5.9
86

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Packers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
2
1
Yards / Game
6
1
Passing Yards / Game
3
6
Rushing Yards / Game
10
4

EPA

EPA / Play
3
4
EPA / Pass
2
4
EPA / Rush
12
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
12
Interceptions / Game
2
13
Fumbles / Game
10
15
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
16
4th Down Efficiency
22
28
RZ Efficiency
11
22
Seahawks Offense vs Packers Defense
Seahawks logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
14
Yards / Game
8
15
Passing Yards / Game
13
28
Rushing Yards / Game
1
26

EPA

EPA / Play
8
17
EPA / Pass
10
7
EPA / Rush
1
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
25
Interceptions / Game
5
4
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
31
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
18
4th Down Efficiency
29
23
RZ Efficiency
19
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
-21
L
L
O
11/09
41
W
W
O
11/16
33
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
L
U
11/30
5
W
W
U
12/08
6
W
L
O
12/14
-8
L
L
U
12/21
17
W
W
U
12/28
10
W
W
O
01/11
5
W
L
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

9-1
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
6
W
L
O
11/09
21
W
W
O
11/16
-4
L
L
O
11/23
16
W
W
U
11/27
16
W
W
U
12/07
10
W
W
U
12/14
10
W
P
U
12/21
29
W
W
O
12/28
14
W
W
U
01/10
14
W
W
O