GBPackers
4-1
35
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
46°F
5 mph
25
PITSteelers
4-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
46°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
0
7
21
35
Steelers
3
13
3
6
25
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
456
295
Total Plays
64
58
Yards / Play
7.1
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.02
Passing Yards
--
202
Comp/Att
29/38(76%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.59
-0.21
Rushing Yards
94
93
Rush Attempts
26
18
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
16
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
42%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.18
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-4.51
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
47
65
Penalty EPA
-5.52
-6.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-42
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,586
Home Field
+33.9
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.4
Net QB Adjustment
+6.1
Home QB Adjustment
+12.7
Away QB Adjustment
+6.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
16
Yards / Game
12
28
Passing Yards / Game
20
32
Rushing Yards / Game
19
13
EPA
EPA / Play
5
16
EPA / Pass
2
17
EPA / Rush
12
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
24
Interceptions / Game
3
8
Fumbles / Game
10
1
Turnover EPA / Game
27
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
24
4th Down Efficiency
9
28
RZ Efficiency
4
6
Steelers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
7
Yards / Game
28
6
Passing Yards / Game
29
13
Rushing Yards / Game
29
7
EPA
EPA / Play
10
20
EPA / Pass
14
20
EPA / Rush
19
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
26
Interceptions / Game
16
27
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
30
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
12
4th Down Efficiency
20
19
RZ Efficiency
9
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
5-4-1
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U