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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ steelers week 8, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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GB logo
GBPackers
4-1
35
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
46°F
5 mph
25
PITSteelers
4-2
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
46°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
0
7
21
35
Steelers
3
13
3
6
25

Spread

GB logo
-3

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
456
295
Total Plays
64
58
Yards / Play
7.1
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.02
Passing Yards
--
202
Comp/Att
29/38(76%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.59
-0.21
Rushing Yards
94
93
Rush Attempts
26
18
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
16
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
42%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.18
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-4.51
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
47
65
Penalty EPA
-5.52
-6.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-40
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,582
Home Field
+34.5
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.5
Net QB Adjustment
+6.1
Home QB Adjustment
+12.7
Away QB Adjustment
+6.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
Value
Ptile
12/23
0.1
50
12/29
-2.4
32
01/05
-2.4
31
01/12
-7.6
6
09/07
2.2
66
09/11
3.0
73
09/21
-4.3
22
09/28
9.5
96
10/12
1.7
63
10/19
-0.1
50
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Value
Ptile
12/15
4.3
76
12/22
3.1
70
12/29
-10.1
2
01/05
2.7
67
09/07
4.0
77
09/14
-7.1
8
09/21
-1.1
41
09/28
1.1
59
10/12
4.8
83
10/16
3.4
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Packers logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
17
Yards / Game
11
27
Passing Yards / Game
17
31
Rushing Yards / Game
15
15

EPA

EPA / Play
4
17
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
20
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
23
Interceptions / Game
1
8
Fumbles / Game
8
2
Turnover EPA / Game
32
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
26
4th Down Efficiency
11
31
RZ Efficiency
11
6
Steelers Offense vs Packers Defense
Steelers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
11
Yards / Game
26
14
Passing Yards / Game
29
8
Rushing Yards / Game
26
17

EPA

EPA / Play
18
24
EPA / Pass
21
23
EPA / Rush
11
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
27
Interceptions / Game
8
25
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
27
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
20
4th Down Efficiency
18
11
RZ Efficiency
18
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

5-4-1
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
34
W
W
U
12/29
-2
L
L
O
01/05
-2
L
L
O
01/12
-12
L
L
U
09/07
14
W
W
U
09/11
9
W
W
U
09/21
-3
L
L
U
09/28
0
T
L
O
10/12
9
W
L
O
10/19
4
W
L
O
PIT logo

Steelers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
-17
L
L
O
12/25
-19
L
L
U
01/04
-2
L
W
U
01/11
-14
L
L
U
09/07
2
W
L
O
09/14
-14
L
L
O
09/21
7
W
W
U
09/28
3
W
W
O
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/16
-2
L
L
O