GBPackers
5-5
28
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
38°F
7 mph
31
PITSteelers
8-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
38°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
14
0
7
7
28
Steelers
6
8
7
10
31
Spread
+14
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
307
464
Total Plays
54
71
Yards / Play
5.7
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.12
Passing Yards
227
343
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
33/46(72%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.39
+0.33
Rushing Yards
80
121
Rush Attempts
24
24
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
28
Passing 1st downs
8
21
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
46%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-12.54
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-18
-10
Sack EPA
-4.41
-1.72
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
27
45
Penalty EPA
-1.53
-4.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+300
Home nfelo
1,630
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+45.8
Base HFA
+55.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+139.2
Home QB Adjustment
+0.9
Away QB Adjustment
-138.3
Market Regression
+16.6
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
B. Hundley
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-138.3
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
11
Yards / Game
26
5
Passing Yards / Game
17
13
Rushing Yards / Game
17
13
EPA
EPA / Play
17
17
EPA / Pass
23
12
EPA / Rush
2
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
28
Interceptions / Game
28
11
Fumbles / Game
7
22
Turnover EPA / Game
11
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
4
31
Steelers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
26
Yards / Game
3
23
Passing Yards / Game
5
25
Rushing Yards / Game
22
18
EPA
EPA / Play
5
29
EPA / Pass
6
30
EPA / Rush
19
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
5
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
3
9
Turnover EPA / Game
18
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
28
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
18
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Steelers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U