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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ steelers week 12, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
5-5
28
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
38°F
7 mph
31
PITSteelers
8-2
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
38°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
14
0
7
7
28
Steelers
6
8
7
10
31

Spread

GB logo
+14

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
307
464
Total Plays
54
71
Yards / Play
5.7
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.12
Passing Yards
227
343
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
33/46(72%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.39
+0.33
Rushing Yards
80
121
Rush Attempts
24
24
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
15
28
Passing 1st downs
8
21
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
46%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-12.54
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-18
-10
Sack EPA
-4.41
-1.72
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
27
45
Penalty EPA
-1.53
-4.61

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0

Win Probability

Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+307
Home nfelo
1,634
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+46.4
Base HFA
+56.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+139.2
Home QB Adjustment
+0.9
Away QB Adjustment
-138.3
Market Regression
+16.6
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0

Quarterbacks

B. Hundley headshot

B. Hundley

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-138.3
Value
Ptile
10/22
-3.3
29
11/06
1.8
66
11/12
0.8
58
11/19
-9.8
3
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
Value
Ptile
09/10
0.5
55
09/17
1.7
65
09/24
-2.3
36
10/01
-1.5
42
10/08
-7.8
9
10/15
-0.0
51
10/22
3.0
75
10/29
0.2
54
11/12
0.1
52
11/16
6.5
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Packers logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
11
Yards / Game
26
5
Passing Yards / Game
17
13
Rushing Yards / Game
17
13

EPA

EPA / Play
17
17
EPA / Pass
23
12
EPA / Rush
2
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
28
Interceptions / Game
28
11
Fumbles / Game
7
22
Turnover EPA / Game
11
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
4
31
Steelers Offense vs Packers Defense
Steelers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
26
Yards / Game
3
23
Passing Yards / Game
5
25
Rushing Yards / Game
22
18

EPA

EPA / Play
5
29
EPA / Pass
6
30
EPA / Rush
19
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
5
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
3
9
Turnover EPA / Game
18
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
28
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
18
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
8
W
W
U
09/17
-11
L
L
O
09/24
3
W
L
O
09/28
21
W
W
O
10/08
4
W
W
O
10/15
-13
L
L
U
10/22
-9
L
L
U
11/06
-13
L
L
O
11/12
7
W
W
O
11/19
-23
L
L
U
PIT logo

Steelers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
3
W
L
U
09/17
17
W
W
U
09/24
-6
L
L
U
10/01
17
W
W
U
10/08
-21
L
L
U
10/15
6
W
W
U
10/22
15
W
W
O
10/29
5
W
W
U
11/12
3
W
L
U
11/16
23
W
W
O