GBPackers
1-1
30
TBD
Nissan Stadium
87°F
7 mph
14
TENTitans
0-2
TBD
Nissan Stadium
87°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
11
3
7
3
24
Titans
7
0
7
0
14
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
378
237
Total Plays
59
53
Yards / Play
6.4
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.32
Passing Yards
190
204
Comp/Att
13/19(68%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
10.0
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.50
Rushing Yards
188
33
Rush Attempts
37
11
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-15.80
Sacks
3
8
Sack Yards
-12
-56
Sack EPA
-3.92
-18.17
Penalties
10
2
Penalty Yards
75
15
Penalty EPA
-6.53
-3.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+43
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+46.8
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+96.8
Home QB Adjustment
-10.3
Away QB Adjustment
-107.2
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Willis
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-107.2
Value
Ptile
W. Levis
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
30
Yards / Game
7
3
Passing Yards / Game
29
5
Rushing Yards / Game
6
25
EPA
EPA / Play
9
21
EPA / Pass
8
18
EPA / Rush
8
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
6
Interceptions / Game
20
18
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
16
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
22
4th Down Efficiency
23
31
RZ Efficiency
10
24
Titans Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
5
Yards / Game
26
4
Passing Yards / Game
15
22
Rushing Yards / Game
18
7
EPA
EPA / Play
30
5
EPA / Pass
30
5
EPA / Rush
29
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
31
Interceptions / Game
31
3
Fumbles / Game
27
4
Turnover EPA / Game
2
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
7
4th Down Efficiency
30
22
RZ Efficiency
24
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Titans
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U