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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ titans week 3, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
1-1
30
TBD
Nissan Stadium
87°F
7 mph
14
TENTitans
0-2
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
87°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
11
3
7
3
24
Titans
7
0
7
0
14

Spread

GB logo
+3

Total

OVER
37

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
378
237
Total Plays
59
53
Yards / Play
6.4
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.32
Passing Yards
190
204
Comp/Att
13/19(68%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
10.0
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.50
Rushing Yards
188
33
Rush Attempts
37
11
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-15.80
Sacks
3
8
Sack Yards
-12
-56
Sack EPA
-3.92
-18.17
Penalties
10
2
Penalty Yards
75
15
Penalty EPA
-6.53
-3.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+40
Home nfelo
1,428
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+46.8
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+96.8
Home QB Adjustment
-10.3
Away QB Adjustment
-107.2
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Willis headshot

M. Willis

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-107.2
Value
Ptile
10/30
-9.8
2
11/06
-9.5
3
12/24
-7.1
8
09/15
2.0
63
W. Levis headshot

W. Levis

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
Value
Ptile
11/02
-5.2
18
11/12
-10.4
2
11/19
-1.0
44
11/26
-2.0
35
12/03
-6.3
12
12/11
2.0
63
12/17
-6.4
12
12/31
-8.2
8
09/08
-6.5
10
09/15
-0.6
45

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Titans Defense
Packers logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
8
30
Yards / Game
7
3
Passing Yards / Game
29
5
Rushing Yards / Game
6
25

EPA

EPA / Play
9
21
EPA / Pass
8
18
EPA / Rush
8
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
6
Interceptions / Game
20
18
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
16
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
22
4th Down Efficiency
23
31
RZ Efficiency
10
24
Titans Offense vs Packers Defense
Titans logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
27
5
Yards / Game
26
4
Passing Yards / Game
15
22
Rushing Yards / Game
18
7

EPA

EPA / Play
30
5
EPA / Pass
30
5
EPA / Rush
29
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
31
Interceptions / Game
31
3
Fumbles / Game
27
4
Turnover EPA / Game
2
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
7
4th Down Efficiency
30
22
RZ Efficiency
24
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
8
W
W
O
12/11
-2
L
L
O
12/17
-14
L
L
O
12/24
3
W
L
O
12/31
23
W
W
O
01/07
8
W
W
U
01/14
16
W
W
O
01/20
-3
L
W
U
09/06
-5
L
L
O
09/15
6
W
W
U
TEN logo

Titans

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
-20
L
L
O
11/26
7
W
W
U
12/03
-3
L
L
O
12/11
1
W
W
O
12/17
-3
L
L
U
12/24
-3
L
P
U
12/31
-23
L
L
U
01/07
8
W
W
O
09/08
-7
L
L
U
09/15
-7
L
L
U