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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ browns week 14, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
6-6
20
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
28°F
4 mph
26
CLEBrowns
4-7
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
28°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
10
3
0
20
Browns
7
10
0
9
26

Spread

CLE logo
+1

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
393
348
Total Plays
69
45
Yards / Play
5.7
7.7
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.02
Passing Yards
297
232
Comp/Att
27/43(63%)
18/23(78%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
10.1
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.07
Rushing Yards
96
116
Rush Attempts
25
21
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
22
12
Passing 1st downs
14
5
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-1.93
-10.07
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-1
-6
Sack EPA
-0.83
-1.80
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
68
52
Penalty EPA
-5.25
-5.74

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-6
Home nfelo
1,424
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+57.9
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.3
Home QB Adjustment
+29.3
Away QB Adjustment
+18.0
Market Regression
-16.0
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.0
Value
Ptile
09/23
5.4
82
10/07
-0.9
41
10/14
5.0
79
10/21
5.1
80
10/28
10.3
97
11/04
2.1
63
11/08
-2.0
33
11/18
3.1
70
11/25
9.1
94
12/02
-4.7
19
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+29.3
Value
Ptile
09/30
-3.5
25
10/07
-0.6
42
10/14
-9.6
4
10/21
-1.0
39
10/28
-1.9
34
11/04
2.4
66
11/11
5.5
83
11/25
6.4
87
12/02
2.0
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Browns Defense
Panthers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
14
21
Yards / Game
9
30
Passing Yards / Game
17
31
Rushing Yards / Game
4
28

EPA

EPA / Play
9
16
EPA / Pass
14
9
EPA / Rush
4
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
18
Interceptions / Game
25
3
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
19
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
27
RZ Efficiency
12
19
Browns Offense vs Panthers Defense
Browns logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
19
20
Yards / Game
11
16
Passing Yards / Game
30
23
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12

EPA

EPA / Play
24
27
EPA / Pass
23
27
EPA / Rush
14
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
26
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
9
10
Turnover EPA / Game
14
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
20
4th Down Efficiency
29
18
RZ Efficiency
5
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
10
W
W
O
10/07
2
W
L
O
10/14
-6
L
L
U
10/21
4
W
W
U
10/28
15
W
W
O
11/04
14
W
W
O
11/08
-31
L
L
O
11/18
-1
L
L
U
11/25
-3
L
L
O
12/02
-7
L
L
U
CLE logo

Browns

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
4
W
W
U
09/30
-3
L
L
O
10/07
3
W
W
U
10/14
-24
L
L
O
10/21
-3
L
W
U
10/28
-15
L
L
O
11/04
-16
L
L
O
11/11
12
W
W
U
11/25
15
W
W
O
12/02
-16
L
L
U