CARPanthers
6-6
20
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
28°F
4 mph
26
CLEBrowns
4-7
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
28°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
10
3
0
20
Browns
7
10
0
9
26
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
393
348
Total Plays
69
45
Yards / Play
5.7
7.7
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.02
Passing Yards
297
232
Comp/Att
27/43(63%)
18/23(78%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
10.1
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.07
Rushing Yards
96
116
Rush Attempts
25
21
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
12
Passing 1st downs
14
5
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-1.93
-10.07
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-1
-6
Sack EPA
-0.83
-1.80
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
68
52
Penalty EPA
-5.25
-5.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-7
Home nfelo
1,426
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+57.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.3
Home QB Adjustment
+29.3
Away QB Adjustment
+18.0
Market Regression
-16.0
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.0
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+29.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
21
Yards / Game
9
30
Passing Yards / Game
17
31
Rushing Yards / Game
4
28
EPA
EPA / Play
9
16
EPA / Pass
14
9
EPA / Rush
4
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
18
Interceptions / Game
25
3
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
19
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
27
RZ Efficiency
12
19
Browns Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
20
Yards / Game
11
16
Passing Yards / Game
30
23
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12
EPA
EPA / Play
24
27
EPA / Pass
23
27
EPA / Rush
14
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
26
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
9
10
Turnover EPA / Game
14
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
20
4th Down Efficiency
29
18
RZ Efficiency
5
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U