CARPanthers
1-2
33
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
048
ATLFalcons
2-1
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
4
0
23
27
Falcons
14
3
14
11
42
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
382
571
Total Plays
65
65
Yards / Play
5.9
8.8
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.29
Passing Yards
331
481
Comp/Att
31/49(63%)
28/37(76%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
13.0
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.67
Rushing Yards
51
90
Rush Attempts
16
25
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
16
18
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
44%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.41
-6.57
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-22
Sack EPA
-0.79
-3.69
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
--
77
Penalty EPA
--
-6.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-33
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,594
Home Field
+51.4
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.1
Home QB Adjustment
+13.0
Away QB Adjustment
-0.1
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
27
Yards / Game
19
27
Passing Yards / Game
18
31
Rushing Yards / Game
10
17
EPA
EPA / Play
22
24
EPA / Pass
25
22
EPA / Rush
14
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
11
Interceptions / Game
28
17
Fumbles / Game
16
15
Turnover EPA / Game
5
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
25
4th Down Efficiency
7
29
RZ Efficiency
11
32
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
26
Yards / Game
2
21
Passing Yards / Game
2
32
Rushing Yards / Game
5
7
EPA
EPA / Play
1
11
EPA / Pass
1
17
EPA / Rush
4
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
3
4
Fumbles / Game
4
8
Turnover EPA / Game
32
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
27
RZ Efficiency
9
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U