CARPanthers
5-5
30
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
027
ATLFalcons
3-6
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Panthers
7
3
9
8
3
30
Falcons
7
14
0
6
0
27
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
488
348
Total Plays
77
58
Yards / Play
6.3
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.06
Passing Yards
421
--
Comp/Att
31/47(66%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.23
Rushing Yards
67
125
Rush Attempts
25
28
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.18
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
20
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
35%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.51
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-29
--
Sack EPA
-13.79
--
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
49
44
Penalty EPA
-7.09
-6.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+100
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+38.3
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
-19.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.0
Home QB Adjustment
-5.1
Away QB Adjustment
-3.0
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-3.0
M. Penix
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
19
Yards / Game
22
16
Passing Yards / Game
14
18
Rushing Yards / Game
9
28
EPA
EPA / Play
25
22
EPA / Pass
25
16
EPA / Rush
15
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
29
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
26
24
Turnover EPA / Game
6
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
16
4th Down Efficiency
7
21
RZ Efficiency
20
20
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
13
Yards / Game
16
15
Passing Yards / Game
22
2
Rushing Yards / Game
13
17
EPA
EPA / Play
27
23
EPA / Pass
23
27
EPA / Rush
16
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
14
Interceptions / Game
3
15
Fumbles / Game
29
23
Turnover EPA / Game
23
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
29
4th Down Efficiency
28
22
RZ Efficiency
12
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U