CARPanthers
5-7
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
040
ATLFalcons
3-9
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
10
0
10
20
Falcons
3
10
17
10
40
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
345
461
Total Plays
68
67
Yards / Play
5.1
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.19
Passing Yards
245
302
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
8.9
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.18
Rushing Yards
100
159
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.18
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
22
Passing 1st downs
18
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
30%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-17.93
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-48
-11
Sack EPA
-12.67
-1.68
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
44
58
Penalty EPA
-6.67
-3.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model54.3%
Spread Pick
Panthers+3.5
Expected Value
+13.2%
Cover Probability
59.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-17
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,539
Home Field
+43.0
Base HFA
+47.9
Divisional Adj
-21.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+44.3
Home QB Adjustment
-26.2
Away QB Adjustment
-70.4
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
30.0
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
K. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-70.4
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-26.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
22
Yards / Game
21
20
Passing Yards / Game
7
1
Rushing Yards / Game
14
15
EPA
EPA / Play
29
21
EPA / Pass
28
24
EPA / Rush
20
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
6
Interceptions / Game
30
18
Fumbles / Game
29
14
Turnover EPA / Game
3
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
21
4th Down Efficiency
12
26
RZ Efficiency
15
19
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
31
Yards / Game
5
24
Passing Yards / Game
2
26
Rushing Yards / Game
30
30
EPA
EPA / Play
13
25
EPA / Pass
15
17
EPA / Rush
23
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
1
Interceptions / Game
21
10
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
10
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
21
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
25
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Falcons
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U