CARPanthers
11-4
21
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
020
ATLFalcons
4-11
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
8
7
0
15
Falcons
7
3
7
3
20
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
283
307
Total Plays
57
69
Yards / Play
5.0
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.05
Passing Yards
149
231
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
28/40(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.10
Rushing Yards
134
76
Rush Attempts
29
20
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
47%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.04
-5.89
Sacks
1
9
Sack Yards
--
-49
Sack EPA
-0.57
-11.56
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
38
56
Penalty EPA
-3.24
-5.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model68.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-104
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.5
Home QB Adjustment
-10.9
Away QB Adjustment
-8.4
Market Regression
+3.8
Final Difference
-137.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.4
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
27
Yards / Game
26
26
Passing Yards / Game
25
11
Rushing Yards / Game
12
31
EPA
EPA / Play
13
32
EPA / Pass
15
30
EPA / Rush
5
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
11
Interceptions / Game
14
29
Fumbles / Game
1
5
Turnover EPA / Game
30
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
32
4th Down Efficiency
2
27
RZ Efficiency
15
20
Falcons Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
2
Yards / Game
16
3
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
32
3
EPA
EPA / Play
17
6
EPA / Pass
18
5
EPA / Rush
23
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
9
Interceptions / Game
19
8
Fumbles / Game
17
9
Turnover EPA / Game
19
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
12
4th Down Efficiency
21
1
RZ Efficiency
19
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
9-1
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U