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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ raiders week 12, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
4-6
32
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
59°F
12 mph
35
OAKRaiders
8-2
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
59°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
0
18
7
32
Raiders
7
11
0
11
29

Spread

CAR logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
358
368
Total Plays
58
72
Yards / Play
6.2
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.01
Passing Yards
229
312
Comp/Att
14/31(45%)
26/40(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.26
Rushing Yards
129
56
Rush Attempts
25
31
Yards / Rush
5.2
1.8
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
30%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.14
-12.02
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
-5
Sack EPA
-3.99
-0.81
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
67
46
Penalty EPA
-7.32
-6.07

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+75
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,578
Home Field
+78.7
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.7
Net QB Adjustment
+40.2
Home QB Adjustment
+28.3
Away QB Adjustment
-11.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-11.9
Value
Ptile
02/07
-7.0
7
09/08
0.3
52
09/18
8.6
94
09/25
-9.7
2
10/02
-1.5
37
10/16
1.2
58
10/30
0.4
52
11/06
-4.0
20
11/13
3.3
75
11/17
-5.7
13
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+28.3
Value
Ptile
09/11
4.0
78
09/18
8.5
94
09/25
-1.4
37
10/02
7.0
90
10/09
1.2
58
10/16
-0.8
43
10/23
0.2
51
10/30
14.4
100
11/06
-1.3
38
11/21
5.4
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Panthers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
15
20
Yards / Game
19
24
Passing Yards / Game
18
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
23

EPA

EPA / Play
22
14
EPA / Pass
25
21
EPA / Rush
14
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
31
Interceptions / Game
28
11
Fumbles / Game
16
7
Turnover EPA / Game
5
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
13
4th Down Efficiency
7
3
RZ Efficiency
11
26
Raiders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Raiders logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
26
Yards / Game
10
21
Passing Yards / Game
26
32
Rushing Yards / Game
6
7

EPA

EPA / Play
15
11
EPA / Pass
17
17
EPA / Rush
17
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
14
Interceptions / Game
9
4
Fumbles / Game
15
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
20
27
RZ Efficiency
13
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
-1
L
L
O
09/18
19
W
W
O
09/25
-12
L
L
U
10/02
-15
L
L
O
10/10
-3
L
L
U
10/16
-3
L
L
O
10/30
10
W
W
O
11/06
3
W
P
U
11/13
-3
L
L
U
11/17
3
W
L
U
OAK logo

Raiders

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
1
W
W
O
09/18
-7
L
L
O
09/25
7
W
W
U
10/02
1
W
W
O
10/09
3
W
L
O
10/16
-16
L
L
U
10/23
17
W
W
O
10/30
6
W
W
O
11/06
10
W
W
O
11/21
7
W
W
O