CARPanthers
3-7
3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
36°F
2 mph
13
BALRavens
6-3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
36°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
0
3
0
3
Ravens
0
3
0
10
13
Spread
+13
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
205
308
Total Plays
54
66
Yards / Play
3.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.40
-0.17
Passing Yards
169
193
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.56
-0.17
Rushing Yards
36
115
Rush Attempts
17
30
Yards / Rush
2.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
19
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
25%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.94
-5.17
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-27
-16
Sack EPA
-7.47
-4.90
Penalties
9
10
Penalty Yards
66
93
Penalty EPA
-6.42
-10.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model84.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+242
Home nfelo
1,591
Away nfelo
1,417
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.8
Home QB Adjustment
+9.0
Away QB Adjustment
-7.8
Market Regression
+16.6
Final Difference
297.0
Model Spread
-13.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-7.8
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
3
Yards / Game
29
6
Passing Yards / Game
30
31
Rushing Yards / Game
10
3
EPA
EPA / Play
20
11
EPA / Pass
24
18
EPA / Rush
9
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
21
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
19
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
4
4th Down Efficiency
7
28
RZ Efficiency
12
4
Ravens Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
17
Yards / Game
16
22
Passing Yards / Game
28
30
Rushing Yards / Game
3
18
EPA
EPA / Play
12
15
EPA / Pass
21
23
EPA / Rush
5
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
24
Interceptions / Game
16
24
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
18
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
9
RZ Efficiency
30
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U