CARPanthers
3-3
24
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
027
NOSaints
3-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
14
7
0
24
Saints
7
14
3
3
27
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
283
415
Total Plays
43
67
Yards / Play
6.6
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.20
Passing Yards
246
277
Comp/Att
23/28(82%)
30/37(81%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.50
+0.38
Rushing Yards
37
138
Rush Attempts
14
29
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
67%
86%
3rd Down Conversions
6
12
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.82
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-10
Sack EPA
-3.17
-5.82
Penalties
1
6
Penalty Yards
--
50
Penalty EPA
--
-6.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+189
Home nfelo
1,602
Away nfelo
1,410
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-10.0
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
+15.2
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+15.2
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
3
Yards / Game
21
2
Passing Yards / Game
20
18
Rushing Yards / Game
20
3
EPA
EPA / Play
16
3
EPA / Pass
21
5
EPA / Rush
13
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
25
Interceptions / Game
27
5
Fumbles / Game
12
26
Turnover EPA / Game
21
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
5
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
28
23
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
18
Yards / Game
12
16
Passing Yards / Game
21
14
Rushing Yards / Game
7
18
EPA
EPA / Play
12
25
EPA / Pass
13
21
EPA / Rush
6
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
16
Interceptions / Game
6
30
Fumbles / Game
26
1
Turnover EPA / Game
18
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
31
4th Down Efficiency
6
21
RZ Efficiency
5
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U