CARPanthers
8-3
21
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
031
NOSaints
8-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
7
0
7
21
Saints
7
14
7
3
31
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
279
400
Total Plays
53
64
Yards / Play
5.3
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.10
Passing Yards
167
252
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.05
Rushing Yards
112
148
Rush Attempts
23
28
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
30%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
+1.16
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-17
Sack EPA
-4.14
-3.81
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
54
68
Penalty EPA
-7.05
-10.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model64.5%
Spread Pick
Panthers+6.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+63
Home nfelo
1,588
Away nfelo
1,572
Home Field
+59.9
Base HFA
+55.6
Divisional Adj
-25.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
+9.9
Net QB Adjustment
-12.3
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+12.6
Market Regression
-1.1
Final Difference
104.1
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
14
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
32
Rushing Yards / Game
4
14
EPA
EPA / Play
12
15
EPA / Pass
15
14
EPA / Rush
15
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
24
4
Fumbles / Game
3
27
Turnover EPA / Game
14
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
27
4th Down Efficiency
17
10
RZ Efficiency
21
14
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
13
Yards / Game
2
10
Passing Yards / Game
6
27
Rushing Yards / Game
6
3
EPA
EPA / Play
2
12
EPA / Pass
3
17
EPA / Rush
3
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
6
24
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
26
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
12
4th Down Efficiency
1
7
RZ Efficiency
6
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U