nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ saints week 15, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CAR logo
CARPanthers
7-6
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
20
NOSaints
3-10
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
3
7
0
17
Saints
0
7
3
10
20

Spread

NO logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
281
337
Total Plays
56
63
Yards / Play
5.0
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.13
Passing Yards
154
256
Comp/Att
15/24(63%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.26
Rushing Yards
127
81
Rush Attempts
31
25
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
15
27
Passing 1st downs
7
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
50%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-0.08
--
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-9
-16
Sack EPA
-1.21
-8.63
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
103
78
Penalty EPA
-13.47
-6.32

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-49
Home nfelo
1,351
Away nfelo
1,398
Home Field
+13.3
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
-20.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-34.6
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
-15.4
Home QB Adjustment
-5.8
Away QB Adjustment
+9.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

B. Young headshot

B. Young

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Value
Ptile
09/21
-1.8
38
09/28
-1.9
37
10/05
-4.1
23
10/12
0.9
58
10/19
-1.1
40
11/02
-6.3
11
11/09
-5.5
15
11/16
6.3
90
11/24
-5.7
14
11/30
4.4
79
T. Shough headshot

T. Shough

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
Value
Ptile
11/02
-2.7
32
11/09
2.8
71
11/23
-4.7
19
11/30
-1.9
37
12/07
-1.0
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Panthers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
27
16
Yards / Game
27
9
Passing Yards / Game
18
6
Rushing Yards / Game
11
23

EPA

EPA / Play
25
10
EPA / Pass
26
12
EPA / Rush
20
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
8
Interceptions / Game
16
19
Fumbles / Game
23
3
Turnover EPA / Game
9
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
3
4th Down Efficiency
4
11
RZ Efficiency
26
11
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Saints logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
16
Yards / Game
23
15
Passing Yards / Game
8
2
Rushing Yards / Game
30
19

EPA

EPA / Play
29
23
EPA / Pass
27
23
EPA / Rush
31
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
18
Interceptions / Game
16
8
Fumbles / Game
27
19
Turnover EPA / Game
8
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
31
4th Down Efficiency
32
23
RZ Efficiency
32
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
-29
L
L
O
10/05
3
W
W
O
10/12
3
W
W
O
10/19
7
W
W
U
10/26
-31
L
L
O
11/02
3
W
W
U
11/09
-10
L
L
U
11/16
3
W
W
O
11/24
-11
L
L
U
11/30
3
W
W
O
NO logo

Saints

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
-12
L
W
O
10/05
12
W
W
U
10/12
-6
L
L
U
10/19
-12
L
L
U
10/26
-20
L
L
U
11/02
-24
L
L
U
11/09
10
W
W
U
11/23
-14
L
L
U
11/30
-4
L
W
U
12/07
4
W
W
O