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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ saints week 17, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Win total projections and results

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
5-10
10
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
18
NOSaints
7-8
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
7
0
0
10
Saints
3
6
3
6
18

Spread

NO logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
37

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
178
280
Total Plays
59
58
Yards / Play
3.0
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.35
-0.19
Passing Yards
90
207
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.62
+0.03
Rushing Yards
88
73
Rush Attempts
26
28
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
16
15
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.94
--
Sacks
7
2
Sack Yards
-42
-15
Sack EPA
-12.77
-2.97
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
33
Penalty EPA
--
-6.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model70.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+120
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,383
Home Field
+39.0
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.6
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
-31.1
Home QB Adjustment
-50.1
Away QB Adjustment
-19.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
148.2
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-19.0
Value
Ptile
01/03
-3.5
22
09/12
2.6
72
09/19
3.6
78
09/23
2.0
67
10/03
1.9
67
10/10
-10.3
4
10/17
-6.1
14
10/24
-10.6
3
10/31
-2.4
35
11/07
-9.5
5
T. Hill headshot

T. Hill

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-50.1
Value
Ptile
11/22
2.9
66
11/29
-3.5
22
12/06
5.2
79
12/13
0.9
50
12/02
-2.4
35
12/12
2.5
72
12/19
-5.8
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Panthers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
29
4
Yards / Game
30
6
Passing Yards / Game
29
13
Rushing Yards / Game
20
4

EPA

EPA / Play
32
1
EPA / Pass
32
3
EPA / Rush
17
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
18
Interceptions / Game
32
6
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
1
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
5
4th Down Efficiency
31
5
RZ Efficiency
25
1
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Saints logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
19
20
Yards / Game
28
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
1
Rushing Yards / Game
16
18

EPA

EPA / Play
28
7
EPA / Pass
24
12
EPA / Rush
27
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
5
Interceptions / Game
12
27
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
18
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
8
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
16
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
-6
L
L
O
10/24
-22
L
L
U
10/31
6
W
W
U
11/07
-18
L
L
U
11/14
24
W
W
O
11/21
-6
L
L
O
11/28
-23
L
L
O
12/12
-8
L
L
O
12/19
-17
L
L
O
12/26
-26
L
L
U
NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
3
W
L
U
10/31
9
W
W
O
11/07
-2
L
L
O
11/14
-2
L
W
P
11/21
-11
L
L
O
11/25
-25
L
L
U
12/02
-10
L
L
U
12/12
21
W
W
U
12/19
9
W
W
U
12/27
-17
L
L
U