CARPanthers
5-10
10
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
018
NOSaints
7-8
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
7
0
0
10
Saints
3
6
3
6
18
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
178
280
Total Plays
59
58
Yards / Play
3.0
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.35
-0.19
Passing Yards
90
207
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.62
+0.03
Rushing Yards
88
73
Rush Attempts
26
28
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
15
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.94
--
Sacks
7
2
Sack Yards
-42
-15
Sack EPA
-12.77
-2.97
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
33
Penalty EPA
--
-6.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model70.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+121
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,386
Home Field
+39.0
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.7
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
-31.1
Home QB Adjustment
-50.1
Away QB Adjustment
-19.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
148.4
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-19.0
T. Hill
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-50.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
4
Yards / Game
30
6
Passing Yards / Game
29
13
Rushing Yards / Game
20
4
EPA
EPA / Play
32
1
EPA / Pass
32
3
EPA / Rush
17
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
18
Interceptions / Game
32
6
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
1
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
5
4th Down Efficiency
31
5
RZ Efficiency
25
1
Saints Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
20
Yards / Game
28
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
1
Rushing Yards / Game
16
18
EPA
EPA / Play
28
7
EPA / Pass
24
12
EPA / Rush
27
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
5
Interceptions / Game
12
27
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
18
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
8
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
16
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U