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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ seahawks week 13, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
4-7
7
TBD
Lumen Field
37°F
4 mph
40
SEASeahawks
7-3
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
37°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
7
0
0
7
Seahawks
10
13
7
10
40

Spread

SEA logo
-8.5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
271
534
Total Plays
54
71
Yards / Play
5.0
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.34
+0.26
Passing Yards
--
294
Comp/Att
14/33(42%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.21
+0.20
Rushing Yards
89
240
Rush Attempts
21
29
Yards / Rush
4.2
8.3
EPA / Rush
-0.38
+0.33
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
14
29
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.30
-3.20
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
--
-6.85
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
63
37
Penalty EPA
-9.47
-3.61

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model78.8%
Spread Pick
SEA logo
Seahawks-8.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
54.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+260
Home nfelo
1,610
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+109.8
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+31.3
Net QB Adjustment
+115.7
Home QB Adjustment
-10.6
Away QB Adjustment
-126.3
Market Regression
+14.2
Final Difference
227.8
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

D. Anderson headshot

D. Anderson

Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-126.3
Value
Ptile
09/26
-4.1
23
10/03
-10.2
4
11/07
-4.8
18
11/14
-4.2
22
11/21
0.7
53
11/29
-5.5
15
12/05
-8.2
6
09/07
3.7
75
12/14
0.1
50
10/10
-2.2
33
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-10.6
Value
Ptile
09/18
-1.0
41
09/25
0.1
49
10/02
5.3
83
10/16
0.2
51
10/23
0.0
49
10/30
-2.7
28
11/07
5.0
83
11/13
5.5
84
11/20
1.9
64
11/27
-9.3
3

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Panthers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
15
2
Yards / Game
19
5
Passing Yards / Game
18
14
Rushing Yards / Game
10
6

EPA

EPA / Play
22
8
EPA / Pass
25
16
EPA / Rush
14
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
6
Interceptions / Game
28
25
Fumbles / Game
16
23
Turnover EPA / Game
5
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
12
4th Down Efficiency
7
5
RZ Efficiency
11
20
Seahawks Offense vs Panthers Defense
Seahawks logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
26
Yards / Game
15
21
Passing Yards / Game
4
32
Rushing Yards / Game
21
7

EPA

EPA / Play
14
11
EPA / Pass
10
17
EPA / Rush
21
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
14
Interceptions / Game
15
4
Fumbles / Game
6
8
Turnover EPA / Game
21
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
11
4th Down Efficiency
21
27
RZ Efficiency
26
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
19
W
W
O
09/25
-12
L
L
U
10/02
-15
L
L
O
10/10
-3
L
L
U
10/16
-3
L
L
O
10/30
10
W
W
O
11/06
3
W
P
U
11/13
-3
L
L
U
11/17
3
W
L
U
11/27
-3
L
W
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

6-3-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
-6
L
L
U
09/25
19
W
W
O
10/02
10
W
W
O
10/16
2
W
L
O
10/23
0
T
W
U
10/30
-5
L
L
U
11/07
6
W
W
O
11/13
7
W
W
O
11/20
11
W
W
U
11/27
-9
L
L
U