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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ seahawks week 19, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
8-8
17
TBD
Lumen Field
48°F
0
31
SEASeahawks
12-4
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
48°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
10
0
7
17
Seahawks
7
7
0
11
25

Spread

SEA logo
-13.5

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
362
348
Total Plays
68
52
Yards / Play
5.3
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.18
Passing Yards
230
248
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
15/22(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
11.3
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.67
Rushing Yards
132
100
Rush Attempts
30
28
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
56%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
9
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-18.07
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-20
Sack EPA
-3.08
-4.27
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
35
60
Penalty EPA
-3.16
-5.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-15.5

Win Probability

Market86.2%
Model88.9%
Spread Pick
SEA logo
Seahawks-13.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+15.7%
Cover Probability
60.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+399
Home nfelo
1,699
Away nfelo
1,442
Home Field
+135.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-29.4
Home QB Adjustment
+11.9
Away QB Adjustment
+41.3
Market Regression
+27.7
Final Difference
360.9
Model Spread
-15.5

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+41.3
Value
Ptile
10/19
-2.4
33
10/26
-7.1
10
10/30
-7.4
9
11/10
-9.5
4
11/16
0.2
51
11/30
-4.7
22
12/07
11.6
99
12/21
4.2
78
12/28
2.1
66
01/03
-0.0
49
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Value
Ptile
10/26
-0.6
46
11/02
-4.3
24
11/09
1.1
57
11/16
4.9
82
11/23
0.6
53
11/27
1.5
61
12/07
6.6
87
12/14
-6.2
14
12/21
14.3
99
12/28
-4.2
25

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Panthers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
19
1
Yards / Game
15
1
Passing Yards / Game
20
6
Rushing Yards / Game
7
4

EPA

EPA / Play
17
4
EPA / Pass
19
4
EPA / Rush
11
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
12
Interceptions / Game
14
13
Fumbles / Game
14
15
Turnover EPA / Game
12
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
16
4th Down Efficiency
10
28
RZ Efficiency
25
22
Seahawks Offense vs Panthers Defense
Seahawks logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
20
Yards / Game
8
6
Passing Yards / Game
13
19
Rushing Yards / Game
1
11

EPA

EPA / Play
8
16
EPA / Pass
10
14
EPA / Rush
1
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
14
Interceptions / Game
5
15
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
31
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
21
4th Down Efficiency
29
14
RZ Efficiency
19
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
-4
L
W
U
10/30
-18
L
L
U
11/10
-24
L
L
O
11/16
-2
L
W
U
11/30
-18
L
L
O
12/07
31
W
W
O
12/14
2
W
L
U
12/21
4
W
L
U
12/28
31
W
W
U
01/03
11
W
W
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
4
W
L
U
11/02
6
W
L
O
11/09
21
W
W
O
11/16
-4
L
L
O
11/23
16
W
W
U
11/27
16
W
W
U
12/07
10
W
W
U
12/14
10
W
P
U
12/21
29
W
W
O
12/28
14
W
W
U