CARPanthers
4-7
27
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
028
MINVikings
4-6
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
7
2
6
15
Vikings
7
3
0
18
28
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
389
Total Plays
64
72
Yards / Play
5.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.05
Passing Yards
--
293
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
34/46(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.14
Rushing Yards
107
96
Rush Attempts
28
24
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
26
Passing 1st downs
10
18
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
+0.98
-16.40
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-9.15
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
58
52
Penalty EPA
-6.18
-7.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,477
Home Field
+7.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-18.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.1
Away QB Adjustment
+25.8
Market Regression
-25.0
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+25.8
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
29
Yards / Game
21
27
Passing Yards / Game
20
9
Rushing Yards / Game
20
27
EPA
EPA / Play
16
27
EPA / Pass
21
25
EPA / Rush
13
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
27
9
Fumbles / Game
12
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
9
4th Down Efficiency
20
30
RZ Efficiency
28
10
Vikings Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
18
Yards / Game
2
16
Passing Yards / Game
5
14
Rushing Yards / Game
5
18
EPA
EPA / Play
13
25
EPA / Pass
9
21
EPA / Rush
8
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
16
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
27
1
Turnover EPA / Game
15
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
31
4th Down Efficiency
17
21
RZ Efficiency
6
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U