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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ vikings week 12, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
4-7
27
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
28
MINVikings
4-6
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
7
2
6
15
Vikings
7
3
0
18
28

Spread

CAR logo
+3

Total

OVER
50

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
374
389
Total Plays
64
72
Yards / Play
5.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.05
Passing Yards
--
293
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
34/46(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.14
Rushing Yards
107
96
Rush Attempts
28
24
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
21
26
Passing 1st downs
10
18
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
+0.98
-16.40
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-9.15
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
58
52
Penalty EPA
-6.18
-7.24

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,522
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+7.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-18.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.1
Away QB Adjustment
+25.8
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+25.8
Value
Ptile
09/13
2.3
62
09/20
-2.1
29
09/27
2.0
58
10/04
6.4
86
10/11
4.7
77
10/18
-5.9
12
10/25
5.4
80
10/29
-5.7
12
11/08
9.8
96
11/15
0.0
46
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Value
Ptile
09/13
4.4
75
09/20
-15.2
0
09/27
-1.2
36
10/04
-1.6
33
10/11
-1.6
32
10/18
-0.9
38
11/01
-0.6
41
11/08
1.5
54
11/16
3.6
71
11/22
5.5
80

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Panthers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
24
29
Yards / Game
21
27
Passing Yards / Game
20
9
Rushing Yards / Game
20
27

EPA

EPA / Play
16
27
EPA / Pass
21
25
EPA / Rush
13
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
27
9
Fumbles / Game
12
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
9
4th Down Efficiency
20
30
RZ Efficiency
28
10
Vikings Offense vs Panthers Defense
Vikings logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
18
Yards / Game
2
16
Passing Yards / Game
5
14
Rushing Yards / Game
5
18

EPA

EPA / Play
13
25
EPA / Pass
9
21
EPA / Rush
8
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
16
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
27
1
Turnover EPA / Game
15
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
31
4th Down Efficiency
17
21
RZ Efficiency
6
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
-14
L
L
O
09/27
5
W
W
U
10/04
10
W
W
U
10/11
7
W
W
U
10/18
-7
L
L
U
10/25
-3
L
W
O
10/29
-8
L
L
U
11/08
-2
L
W
O
11/15
-23
L
L
O
11/22
20
W
W
U
MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-9
L
L
O
09/20
-17
L
L
U
09/27
-1
L
W
O
10/04
8
W
W
O
10/11
-1
L
W
U
10/18
-17
L
L
O
11/01
6
W
W
O
11/08
14
W
W
O
11/16
6
W
W
U
11/22
-3
L
L
O