NEPatriots
3-2
37
TBD
New Era Field
55°F
6 mph
22
BUFBills
3-2
TBD
New Era Field
55°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
13
10
14
37
Bills
0
7
7
8
22
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
396
338
Total Plays
66
67
Yards / Play
6.0
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.06
Passing Yards
346
270
Comp/Att
27/37(73%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.76
+0.16
Rushing Yards
50
68
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
1.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.36
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
47%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-10.09
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-15
-31
Sack EPA
-2.17
-10.25
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
60
107
Penalty EPA
-8.67
-11.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
+3.5
Current
-1.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model49.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-27
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+39.5
Home QB Adjustment
+32.9
Away QB Adjustment
-6.6
Market Regression
+77.7
Final Difference
-0.7
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.6
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+32.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
4
Yards / Game
10
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
14
Rushing Yards / Game
19
10
EPA
EPA / Play
1
1
EPA / Pass
4
1
EPA / Rush
5
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
15
Interceptions / Game
6
5
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
30
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
1
4th Down Efficiency
3
14
RZ Efficiency
5
10
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
8
Yards / Game
24
12
Passing Yards / Game
11
21
Rushing Yards / Game
25
13
EPA
EPA / Play
25
9
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
28
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
28
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
15
23
Turnover EPA / Game
24
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
13
4th Down Efficiency
20
12
RZ Efficiency
30
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U